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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Despite the UK government announcing three new trade agreements in May, GDP growth outlook remains challenged. These trade deals are likely to offer limited short-term benefits, at a time when several macroeconomic headwinds, including rising inflation, increasing unemployment and constrained fiscal headroom, are weighing on business and consumer confidence. Against…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at U.S.-EU trade relations. Meanwhile, tensions between China and Australia rise, Japan’s PM attempts a political reset, and the foreign policy statements of Germany’s chancellor are attracting…
The U.S. “Liberation Day” announcement on April 2, 2025, introducing broad global tariffs, followed by pauses, adjustments and international agreements, has sparked significant market volatility. While recent trade agreements have tempered initial concerns, ongoing negotiations and administration positions, including those on regional tariffs and tariff related price hikes, signal continued…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Romania’s consequential presidential election result. Meanwhile, the EU and the UK reach a new deal, China imposes fresh tariff duties on the U.S. and others, and…
On April 28th, Spain, Portugal and parts of Southern France experienced one of the largest power outages in European history. The blackout lasted over 10 hours in many areas, affecting approximately 60 million people, resulting in nine fatalities and causing an estimated €2B-5B in economic loss.1 To the credit of…
As the United States grapples with shifting political winds, developers in the distributed solar and storage market are facing a potential policy storm. The confluence of an uncertain future for the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), escalating import tariffs and evolving state-level responses threaten to reshape the economic and growth trajectory…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the India-Pakistan ceasefire. Meanwhile, the U.S. and China announce plans to reduce tariffs, the presidents of Russia and Ukraine could meet in person, and the Philippines…
As President Trump embarks on a four-day overseas trip and the U.S. advances negotiations with major trading partners, we are monitoring the following: A breakthrough in negotiations with China, announced early on Monday, has resulted in both nations agreeing to reduce reciprocal tariffs for 90 days. Following weekend talks in…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we take a closer look at the outlook for the returning government in Australia. Meanwhile, India/Pakistan tensions remain high, China’s Xi Jinping will attend Russia’s Victory Day celebrations and South Korea’s presidential election…
President Trump’s second term administration has signaled its intent to pursue a devolution of federal responsibilities, favoring greater roles for state and local governments and the private sector. The shift is particularly evident in disaster resilience and preparedness, where the federal government has historically played a central role. We survey…
In an election marked by bucked trends and unprecedented events, Mark Carney and the incumbent Liberals secured a rare feat in Canadian history: a fourth consecutive term. This caps off an impressive turnaround that began with the resignation of Justin Trudeau and was fuelled by President Trump’s economic threats and…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the security situation between India and Pakistan. Meanwhile, China’s Politburo declined to unveil new stimulus policies, Russia’s ceasefire announcement is intended to signal openness to U.S.-led…
As President Trump hits the road this week to mark his first 100 days in office, we are monitoring the following: The White House remains publicly optimistic about its tariff agenda, even as concerns about a looming recession intensify. Negotiations are ongoing with global trading partners, with Secretary of the…
The progressive Democratic Party formally nominated Lee Jae-myung as its candidate for the 3 June presidential election, with polls showing him with a commanding lead. Acting President Han Duck-soo's potential candidacy for the conservative People Power Party has stirred intense speculation, with backroom negotiations intensifying this week. The first round…
