Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s charm offensive to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has garnered significant rewards with the announcement of a USD 3bn pledge by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. In a rare visit by the crown prince to Ethiopia, which was…
In a surprise decision, the 36-member Executive Committee of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) approved sweeping and unprecedented economic reforms. On 5 June, the EPRDF announced plans to open up the state-owned telecommunications sector and airline to private domestic and foreign investment. These reforms will also include…
The ruling coalition has had to face a number of electoral reverses recently, giving an impetus to moves towards opposition unity. If the opposition can get its act together, the ruling NDA coalition might find the going tough in 2019, when general elections are due. A good signpost of the…
Leaders of several of the region’s largest economies are becoming more sensitive to possible adverse public reactions to higher prices, especially fuel, and their potential to create political vulnerabilities. Populist economic policies will be part of the mix of reactions, depending on the nature of the pressure on the leaders, the…
The ten-day nation-wide trucker strike may be waning, albeit slowly, but its effects are long-standing.It has crippled not only supply chains, causing shortages and disruptions, but also an evolving consensus within the political establishment in favor of reformist economic policies. This has significant implications for the October 2018 general and…
The 20 May election was a pyrrhic victory for President Nicolas Maduro because it exposed his lack of popular support. The economic crisis is so severe – and worsening – that Maduro’s position will remain highly precarious. However, there are several factors at play that could help Maduro stay in power,…
Voter intentions have remained largely unchanged following the imprisonment of Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. This is somewhat surprising, as many believed the former president’s campaign had fueled the rise of the rightwing Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and stifled the candidacies of other leftist politicians. The exit of as polarizing a…
The opposition leader Nikol Pashinian has increased pressure on the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) by calling a general strike ahead of his second attempt to become prime minister on 8 May. The probability of early elections in the coming months is high, and the snap polls would likely…
As expected, the National Assembly failed to meet the self-imposed deadline to pass the 2018 budget on 24 April. This date was announced on 21 March by the National Assembly leadership, but signs had emerged shortly afterwards that the target was untenable. Looking ahead, the base case remains that –…
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has announced snap presidential and parliamentary elections for 24 June 2018. The uncertainty of the country’s economic outlook and a desire to catch opposition parties off guard are probably behind the president’s change of mind. Erdogan’s likely victory is unlikely to bring political stability or be…
A discussion between Teneo Senior Advisor and Director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, China, Paul Haenle and Kevin Kajiwara, Co-Head of Teneo Intelligence. Teneo Senior Advisor Paul Haenle, former China Director and White House representative to the Six-Party Talks on the National Security Council staffs of former presidents George…
Turnout is the key; for now, the consensus is that the opposition’s dysfunction will result in a lower number compared to 2013, which will help the ruling National Front keep its parliamentary majority. If there are signs that the youth and ethnic Chinese and Indians are becoming more active, then…