The decline of the United State in Asia is overstated, despite all the negative headlines. As the world’s largest single market and still the only global superpower, the voice of the U.S. will, for the foreseeable future, still greatly influence developments in the region. However, even before Donald Trump’s election…
Russia and China have been on a diplomatic honeymoon for the past five years. The two countries presidents, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, have put on a display of friendship and partnership, and their frequent summits showcase intensifying bilateral cooperation. However, what does the future hold for this important power…
Compared to previous years, 2019 will be light on big elections in Europe. Greece will have to go to the polls and Spain might, but the main political risk will not emanate from the electoral ballot. Rather than populist forces making further inroads, political risk in 2019 will be defined…
The current flurry of cabinet resignations puts Prime Minister Theresa May under heavy pressure. However, in the (increasingly probable) event of a Tory-internal confidence vote, she remains likely to narrowly manage to stay on. The backlash against the Brexit deal was to be expected. The UK debate remains entirely disconnected…
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision not to run again for the leadership of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has further fuelled speculation about the end of her chancellorship. As discussed, Merkel’s retreat from the helm of her party is intended to preserve her top job in government until 2021. Whether she…
As expected, the far-right candidate of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), former army captain Jair Bolsonaro won the presidential elections on 28 October. Bolsonaro won 55.13% of the valid votes over 44.87% of his leftist opponent from the Workers’ Party (PT) Fernando Haddad. His ten-percentage point victory was convincing, but…
The European Commission (EC) has on 23 October asked Italy to revise and resubmit its draft budgetary plan (DBP). The EC had already identified serious non-compliance with Italy’s budgetary obligations, making today’s request to revise the DBP almost inevitable. Now that the relevant letter has been sent, Rome will have…
Another round of import curbs, this time to prevent the fallout of the U.S.-China trade war on the Indian economy, is on the cards. The administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi could impose a new series of restrictions as early as October-end, as the government struggles to defend the rupee…
There will be a second round pitting the far-rightist Jair Bolsonaro from the Social Liberal Party (PSL) and the leftist Fernando Haddad from the Workers’ Party (PT), as we previously forecast in publications from 4, 5, and 7 October. Bolsonaro came close to reaching the 50% threshold for a first-round victory…
The urgency of attending to the victims from the earthquake and tsunami that hit the island region of Sulawesi will likely be the administration’s focus over the next few weeks, to avoid any political fallout as election season starts. Necessities – food, water, fuel and medicine – are in short…
A delegation of Japanese bureaucrats and business leaders visited Beijing on Tuesday, 25 September for the first meeting of a Japan-China public-private committee to develop joint initiatives for infrastructure investments in “third countries.” The meeting was the result of extensive discussions between Tokyo and Beijing regarding the possible conditions for…
The Changing Dynamics In a move that could have a far-reaching impact on companies, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently announced that it has withdrawn two guidance letters relating to how investors use proxy advisors. These withdrawals by the SEC, along with its stated rationale for the withdrawals…