In an election marked by bucked trends and unprecedented events, Mark Carney and the incumbent Liberals secured a rare feat in Canadian history: a fourth consecutive term. This caps off an impressive turnaround that began with the resignation of Justin Trudeau and was fuelled by President Trump’s economic threats and rhetorical broadsides against Canada.
It was an election that, oddly, left most parties dissatisfied with the results. In what turned out to be a two-way race in most of the country, Liberals did not win enough seats (169) to form a majority government.
While the Liberals faced annihilation only a few months earlier, polling throughout the campaign had raised their hopes of forming a majority government. Instead, they will need to rely on the support of either the sovereigntist Bloc Québécois (22) or the left-leaning NDP (7) in the House of Commons.
The Conservative Party of Canada won over 41 per cent of the popular vote and gained over 20 seats compared to 2021, making significant gains in suburban Ontario. This is normally a recipe for a Tory victory, if not an outright majority. But the near total collapse of the NDP—by far the biggest losers of the night—pushed the Liberals far enough in the popular vote and seat count to prevent a Conservative win.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre lost his own suburban Ottawa seat, but did not offer any evidence in his concession speech that he planned to step down from his leadership position.
The Months Ahead
With their two main rivals occupied with leadership questions, we expect Mr. Carney to move quickly in demonstrating his ability to govern effectively. This includes immediately launching trade and security negotiations with the Trump administration.
A senior Liberal official, cited in The Globe and Mail, indicated that by Canada Day, the new government would table a budget that includes a promised tax cut and legislation to remove federal interprovincial trade barriers.
It has also been reported that Mr. Carney will appoint a new Cabinet within two weeks that will include Quebec finance minister Carlos Leitao, ex-Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson, former Delta Chamber of Commerce executive director Jill McKnight, climate change activist Shannon Miedema and gun control advocate Nathalie Provost.
While a minority government would create some uncertainty in Mr. Carney’s ability to govern effectively, the Liberals should be able to rely on the support of other parties to advance different parts of their policy agenda. This may even include working with the Conservatives to advance energy and infrastructure projects—a hot button campaign issue for both parties.
The NDP and Bloc Québécois may seek to extract concessions from the Liberals in exchange for their continued support. But both parties are in weak positions—NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced his intention to resign as results came in—and will be careful not to trigger an election they are not prepared for.
Faced with a Conservative Party coming off one of its strongest performances in recent memory, the Liberals, NDP and Bloc will have an incentive to collaborate and govern effectively in the months to come.
Although President Trump loomed large throughout the campaign, the results indicate concerns about crime and cost-of-living also animated much of the electorate, creating further incentive for Mr. Carney to address issues that go beyond the Canada-U.S. relationship, including affordability.
On Tuesday, President Trump signed an executive order that softens the blow of his auto tariffs by providing tax credits worth up to 15 per cent of the value of cars assembled in the U.S. – a move some interpret as a sign he is softening his hardline trade stance.
It remains to be seen whether Mr. Carney will be able to implement his ambitious policy platform all while navigating the Canada-U.S. relationship. The two leaders agreed to meet in person during a phone call Tuesday, although no date has been set.