Subscribe to weekly updates from Teneo
Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Gabriel is a Managing Director focusing on political risk analysis in China. He was previously Shanghai Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, where he covered China’s macro-economy, financial system, and markets.
Prior to the Financial Times, Gabriel served as the China Finance Correspondent and Markets Correspondent for Reuters, where he wrote daily reports on China’s interbank foreign exchange and money markets. He also worked as a research analyst for SK Group China and as the Beijing bureau chief for GaveKal-Dragonomics, a macro-economic consultancy. He graduated magna cum laude from Brown University and is fluent in Mandarin.
Deglobalization has become a hot topic in recent years, but the term is vague enough to encompass a broad range of specific issues. Lurking behind nearly all of these, however, is U.S.-China geopolitical tensions and the return of protectionist policies around the world. Vision 2024, Teneo’s annual CEO & Investor…
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
Two collisions in disputed waters highlight the longer-term trend of increased assertiveness by both Manila and Beijing in their attempts to assert sovereignty. The risk continues to be of a miscalculation, not intentional escalation; both sides will try to avoid an "armed attack" that would invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense…
Growing incidences of conflicts globally raise questions about the effects on Asia, which has some of the world’s most significant geopolitical hotspots. Below, we examine how dynamics in East and Southeast Asia are being influenced by broader global events, for worse or (sometimes) better. The basic takeaway is that there…
Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is reportedly under investigation for corruption related to military procurement, along with eight other officials from the procurement unit he led. We see few clear policy implications from Li's apparent ouster, because he was not among the most influential party-state officials on foreign policy and…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s investigation into Chinese EV subsidies. Meanwhile, monetary policy change looks unlikely in Japan, the leaders of Turkey and Greece will…
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's meetings in Beijing yielded no policy breakthroughs but marked further progress towards stabilizing bilateral relations. China's leadership likely views Yellen as the best advocate within the Biden administration for maintaining tight economic ties, and warm state media coverage suggests an attempt to flatter her. The…
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's two-day trip to Beijing was a success, at least based on the low expectations surrounding it. Both sides demonstrated their desire to stabilize bilateral relations and resume the trajectory towards bilateral rapprochement that was interrupted by February's balloon incident. US-China relations may now enter…
US-China diplomatic contacts are increasing, and bilateral relations appear to be returning to the baseline established prior to February's balloon incident. Despite this apparent "thaw," we see little scope for substantive breakthroughs in bilateral ties, given that neither side is willing to offer concessions. Even absent concrete policy shifts, however,…
China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) aims to build a diplomatic and security architecture to rival the US-led system of multilateral treaties, alliances, and institutions. So far the GSI remains ill-defined and largely re-packages existing Chinese-led forums, multilateral institutions, and security concepts, but Beijing will flesh out the initiative gradually. Process…
This year is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the future of foreign investment in China. Economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022, the slowest annual pace since 1976, not including 2020, when Covid-19 first emerged. China’s harsh zero-Covid policy was the main factor…
Despite earlier Chinese balloons that US officials declined to publicize, the Biden administration apparently calculated that, given its low altitude, this balloon would inevitably be discovered. We doubt that Chinese leaders intended to engage in a brazen provocation ahead of a planned US visit to Beijing; a technical malfunction is…
Partial control of Congress will enable Republicans to hold hearings on issues including Taiwan and human rights, pressuring the Biden administration towards hardline policies. US-based multinationals will face accusations of "ESG hypocrisy" for advocating progressive causes within the US while failing to condemn alleged abuses in China. Congress is likely…
China's abrupt transition away from zero-Covid has led to overcrowded hospitals and medication shortages, while driver shortages are delaying home delivery of groceries in some cities. Despite these problems, China so far appears to be avoiding the worst-case scenario of social and political instability, while public anger is unlikely…
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
The speed of China's exit from zero-Covid is surpassing even the optimistic expectations reflected in last week's note. The readout from the Politburo meeting on 7 December omits any reference to dynamic zero, signaling that the Communist Party leadership has abandoned it. A day later, the National…
Protests against the zero-Covid policy have emerged in at least ten cities, with some protests broadening to include opposition to "dictatorship" and demands for democracy, free speech, and human rights. The protests are highly unlikely to threaten President Xi Jinping's political status or the Communist Party's grip on power, given…
Policy changes on zero-Covid and housing suggest that the completion of the Party Congress may have eased policy paralysis that prevented aggressive action to revive economic growth. On housing, regulators signaled to banks that property lending is no longer politically incorrect, but it remains unclear how banks will respond to…
The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications…
President Xi Jinping achieved his three major objectives: a third five-year term as general secretary, no presumed successor, and a Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists. The main political faction that might have exerted modest constraints on Xi, the Communist Youth League faction, was entirely shut out of the Standing…
US President Joe Biden stated unequivocally that the US military would defend Taiwan against a mainland invasion; this and similar remarks can no longer be regarded as gaffes. Biden's statement coincides with pending US legislation, the Taiwan Policy Act, that would infuriate Beijing by adopting various symbolic steps to strengthen…
Record high LNG prices have resulted in large cuts to LNG imports across Asia with varied impacts depending on spot market exposure, fuel-switching options and economic responses. Countries in Southeast Asia tend to be the most exposed, whereas countries like India, China, Japan, or South Korea have more fuel-switching options…
A new wave of Covid-19 lockdowns will further damage household consumption, but recent adjustments to "dynamic zero" will minimize the impact on manufacturing supply chains. Contrary to earlier forecasts, it now appears increasingly doubtful that authorities will move immediately to exit from zero-Covid following the 20th Party Congress in October.
July economic data showed the economy weakening across the board, raising difficult choices for policymakers about whether to backslide on earlier promises to avoid "supersize" stimulus. Interest-rate cuts have failed to revive credit demand, due to the combination of collapsing public confidence in the housing market and the ongoing impact…
The Chinese government's immediate response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan did not trigger a crisis as feared, but the medium- and long-term impacts could be more significant. Pelosi's visit may have ushered in a new normal of increased Chinese military presence around Taiwan, more frequent provocations…
The Chinese government's initial response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit should ease concerns about a worst-case scenario of military confrontation or trade blockades. Even short of such scenarios, however, Beijing's responses could last for months, unsettling financial markets and raising risks for multinational companies. US multinationals in…
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan in August is developing into a perfect storm for aggravating US-China bilateral tension. The Biden administration privately opposes Pelosi's visit but must avoid the appearance of pressuring her to cancel, which would create the appearance of bowing to Beijing's intimidation. If…
Homebuyers in at least 80 cities have halted mortgage payments to protest housing developers' stalled progress on finishing construction of pre-sold apartments. In a worst-case scenario, the issue could trigger systemic financial risk and social instability, given housing's role as a bedrock of the broader financial system. But our base…
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken gave a speech on 26 May outlining the Biden administration’s overall policy towards China. The speech contained no new policy announcements and largely served as an affirmation of the administration’s existing approach. Though US officials have shied away from the term, this approach amounts…
Anti-corruption authorities have arrested dozens of senior bankers and financial regulators in recent months, following a broad investigation into the financial sector last year. The focus on the financial sector probably reflects President Xi Jinping’s conception of “financial security” as essential to national security; recent financial scandals demonstrate how isolated…
Beijing has made a significant concession to Washington by revising rules that prevented US regulators from inspecting audit papers on US-listed Chinese companies. But even the revised rules may not satisfy Washington's requirement for unfettered access, since Chinese authorities must still grant permission on a case-by-case basis for Chinese companies…
The Chinese government now appears unlikely to make a decisive shift away from its zero-Covid policy before November. An editorial in the official Xinhua news service on 28 March emphasized President Xi Jinping’s personal role in directing the policy, making any shift unlikely until after the…
China is facing the toughest test yet of its zero-tolerance policy towards Covid-19. Health officials reported 1,337 domestically transmitted symptomatic case on 13 March, and the cumulative total for 2022 has now exceeded 9,000, compared to 8,378 for all of 2021. The northeastern province of Jilin…
Declarations of an official end to the Covid-19 pandemic in several countries are leading Chinese policymakers to quietly consider their own exit from a strict zero-Covid policy. The rollout of domestically developed mRNA vaccines and effective antiviral treatments are crucial preconditions for China's exit from zero-tolerance. In Hong Kong, restoring…
Draft rules from China's securities regulator suggest that Beijing will continue to permit some foreign stock-market listings and that most already-listed companies will not be forced to de-list. But the rules grant regulators broad discretion to block foreign initial public offerings (IPOs) for a variety of reasons, including national security…
A recent outbreak in Xi'an is attributable to Delta, but the outbreak still raises questions about whether China's zero-tolerance approach will remain viable amid the Omicron wave. Even if China's zero-tolerance playbook can succeed in containing Omicron outbreaks, other concerns may render the policy unsustainable beyond 2022. But relenting from…
Paul Haenle, Chairman of Teneo’s Asia Pacific Region, Director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, and former Director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolian Affairs on the National Security Council staffs of Presidents Bush and Obama, and Gabriel Wildau, Teneo Senior Vice President, former Shanghai Bureau Chief for the Financial Times…
Taiwan will raise its nationwide virus alert to Level 3 on a four-tier scale, following 1,226 Covid-19 infections since 15 May – almost half of total cases since the epidemic began last year. Taiwan's relative success at controlling the virus until now could become a liability if the current outbreak…
China's annual parliament session sent a clear signal that GDP growth is no longer the leadership's top priority. The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) focuses on indigenous innovation capacity and protecting China's role in global supply chains. The five-year plan's targets for reducing carbon emissions fall short of what advocates say…
China is suffering its worst Covid-19 outbreak since July, prompting authorities to re-impose lockdowns in several regions and threatening to derail the recovery of consumer spending. Though authorities are likely to succeed in containing the latest outbreak, in a worst-case scenario, new lockdown measures and weak consumer sentiment could linger…
With the US and Europe prioritizing vaccine access for their own citizens, China could be the main source of vaccines for the developing world through at least early 2021. China's success in controlling Covid-19 through aggressive test-and-trace policies increases Beijing's flexibility to deploy vaccines for diplomatic purposes. China's vaccine diplomacy…
Carsten Nickel, Managing Director at Teneo, Jon Alterman, Teneo Senior Advisor, Anne Frühauf, Managing Director at Teneo, Nicholas Watson, Managing Director at Teneo, and Gabriel Wildau, Senior Vice President at Teneo, join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss what business leaders should look out for in 2021. …
Top Communist Party leaders convened their quarterly Politburo meeting on 30 July, signaling a policy shift towards monetary tightening and containment of financial risks, after strong second quarter GDP data instilled confidence in the country's growth trajectory. The official readout of the meeting described second quarter growth as "obviously stronger…
Paul Haenle, Damien Ryan, Gabriel Wildau and Jerome Hauer Ph.D. join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the New Challenges for Companies Doing Business in China. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining today's…
US President Donald Trump is likely to sign the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act in the coming days, and similar legislation focused on Tibet is also moving through the US Congress. Progress on both bills is an illustration of how rapidly anti-China sentiment has escalated over just the last several…
Paul Haenle, Simon Buckby, Gabriel Wildau and Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the coronavirus and its effects on the U.S. - China relationship. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Well, good day everyone and welcome…
The Chinese central government's plan for a new national security law in Hong Kong reflects impatience with the lack of legal tools available to suppress the protest movement. Beijing is seeking to reassure foreign business that the law will affect only a "tiny minority" of radical activists, not-law-abiding investors and…
Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, Gabriel Wildau, Paul Haenle and Oscar Wang join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss China's role in the Coronavirus crisis and how it will effect relations with the U.S. going forward. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK):…
China is employing harsh measures to combat a rise in imported Covid-19 infections, which now outnumber local transmissions. Diplomats from African countries have issued formal complaints about racist treatment of nationals of African countries in China, but African leaders will ultimately be reluctant to antagonize Beijing. Restrictive policies and rising…
Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, Gabriel Wildau, Martha Carter, Orson Porter, and Tony Sayegh join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the latest updates and developments regarding the effect of the coronavirus. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Good morning everyone or…
Andrea Calise, Jerome Hauer, Ph.D and Gabriel Wildau join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the latest updates and developments regarding the effect of the coronavirus. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Welcome to today's Teneo Insights call. I’m…
Andrea Calise, Jerome Hauer, Ph.D, Oscar Wang and Gabriel Wildau join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the latest updates and developments regarding the effect of the coronavirus. Listen to the Call Kevin Kajiwara (KK): I’m Kevin Kajiwara, Co-President of…
Virus Continues to Spread in China Despite Efforts As China continues to struggle to contain the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the United States and most Western European countries have taken aggressive approaches to responding to the virus, limiting the exposure of their populaces to the disease and slowing the…
Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Welcome to today’s Teneo Insights call on Hong Kong and the continued unrest there, and the potential path to a resolution. I’m Kevin Kajiwara, co-President of Teneo’s Political Risk Advisory business. Guiding us through today’s conversation, I’m joined by three of my colleagues: Damien Ryan, the CEO…
The rise of China is upsetting the longstanding geopolitical equilibrium in East Asia. The U.S. has dominated the region militarily since World War II, while U.S. economic and diplomatic clout has allowed it to exert regional influence with carrots as well as sticks. Today, the U.S.’ position in Asia faces…
A discussion between Paul Haenle, Damien Ryan and Gabriel Wildau. Moderated by Kevin Kajiwara. Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Today we’re going to discuss the outlook for the unrest that we continue to see in Hong Kong and look at the impact on markets, geopolitics and businesses operating in Hong Kong. Starting…
The Broad Trends Shaping Asia
