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Carsten Nickel

Managing Director

Carsten Nickel is a Managing Director with Teneo in London. Previously based in Brussels and Berlin, he co-launched the firm’s political risk advisory service in 2013.

Carsten helps businesses and investors position themselves towards social, political and regulatory dynamics in Europe. As Deputy Director of Research, he coordinates Teneo’s global political risk coverage, its team of analysts and key client relationships.

His expertise combines political analysis with strategic communications, thought leadership and public affairs. He is also a regular commentator for a variety of media outlets.

Prior to joining Teneo, Carsten was an analyst in the Europe practice of Eurasia Group. Earlier, he worked for a member of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

Carsten holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford and master’s degrees from the LSE and Ruhr University Bochum. He teaches at Sciences Po Paris.

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Articles by Carsten Nickel

2022-10-09,Kyiv,,Ukraine.,Beautiful,Panoramic,View,Of,The,Historical,DistrictEurope: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine Support If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical… January 30, 2024
Surface,Of,Earth,Planet,In,Deep,Space.,Outer,Dark,SpaceWhat to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,… December 6, 2023
London,Cityscape,With,Houses,Of,Parliament,And,Big,Ben,TowerUK: Implications of Sunak’s Cabinet Reshuffle Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reshuffled his cabinet in what is likely to be the last major change of the Conservative front bench ahead of the general election expected before the end of 2024. The return of former prime minister David Cameron as foreign secretary came as a major surprise. November 13, 2023
Binnenhof,Castle,(dutch,Parliament),Cityscape,Downtown,Skyline,Of,Hague,InNetherlands: Ahead of Elections, a Dominant but Fragmented Political Right With less than three weeks to go until the 22 November general elections, fragmentation remains the name of the game in Dutch politics. However, despite a complicated political landscape with up to 18 parties currently expected to be represented in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, some overall trends will… November 3, 2023
Berlin,Brandenburg,Skyline,Aerial,View,Birds,View,,Belrin,River,BridgeGermany: Security Strategy Won’t Resolve Bigger Political, Economic Trade-Offs After prolonged haggling, the government has, for the first time, agreed on a so-called national security strategy. This reflects a new awareness of geopolitical risks, but meaningful changes will not be brought about via such macro documents and associated strategy debates and workshops. These appeal only… June 15, 2023
Panoramic,View,Of,The,Skyline,Of,Berlin,,Germany,,With,TheGermany: The Domestic Politics Behind the Government’s China Policy Following Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's visit to Beijing, the domestic debate about China policy continues among foreign policy elites. Compared to French President Emmanuel Macron, Baerbock took a more hawkish position. However, German foreign policy is made by coalition governments, not the president. As a result, Baerbock's stance must be… April 18, 2023
Reichstag,Building,In,BerlinWeekly Political Compass 4.17.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at German China policy. Meanwhile, Chinese house prices are rising, local elections will be held in the north of Kosovo, Argentine officials hope… April 17, 2023
Berlin,Skyline,City,Panorama,With,Blue,Sky,Sunset,And,TrafficGermany: Green Transition Continues to Create Coalition Frictions Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition has agreed on a plan to phase out fuel heating systems in private houses. This follows last week’s agreement on a set of measures to boost the green infrastructure transition, achieved after days of protracted talks. However, financing a support package for households is… April 3, 2023
Blurry,Of,Road,In,The,Middle,Of,Asphalt,Road,AtWhat to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it… December 14, 2022
Beijing,,China,City,Skyline,In,The,Central,Business,District,AtEU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in Sight The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications… October 31, 2022
Corn,Field,In,Front,Of,Cooling,Towers,Of,A,NuclearGermany: Nuclear Energy and Trade – Reining in the Greens In a rare move for any German chancellor, Olaf Scholz has unilaterally decided to keep all three remaining nuclear power blocks in service throughout the winter until April 2023. Meanwhile, at a gathering of European Social Democrats, Scholz called for renewed efforts to close a transatlantic trade deal between the… October 24, 2022
Aerial,Cityscape,View,Of,London,And,The,River,Thames,,England,UK: Implications of Kwarteng’s Sacking Prime Minister Liz Truss has sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, replacing him with relatively centrist Jeremy Hunt, in a desperate bid to calm the pushback from her own backbench MPs, markets, and voters. The dramatic move constitutes a double-edged sword: it is both testament to the PM’s extremely precarious position… October 14, 2022
Downing,Street,In,The,Morning,Winter,,LondonUK: Truss Rows Back – But How Much? After last week’s market rout and amid growing opposition from within the Conservative Party, the government has been forced into a U-turn on its plan for a tax cut for the highest earners. This follows the realization at the beginning of the current Tory conference that PM Liz Truss would… October 3, 2022
London,,England,,The,Big,Ben,,The,Houses,Of,Parliament,,WestminsterUK: Do Truss’s Spending Plans Point to Elections Soon? New Prime Minister Liz Truss finds herself at the helm of a country facing a historically difficult moment. Though the focus has naturally been on the monarchy in recent days, the PM last week presented a package of measures with far-reaching implications for the UK economy and politics more broadly. September 20, 2022
Oil,Company.,The,Company,For,The,Extraction,Of,Hydrocarbons.EU: Policy Responses to Energy Crisis Will Likely Remain Reactive EU governments are doing their best to prepare for a winter of lower Russian gas supplies, but global price dynamics might strain European economies. National-level measures to protect consumers and firms will remain the default response, although their growing cost will increase the popularity of policy options such as windfall… August 25, 2022
Panoramic,View,Of,The,Skyline,Of,Berlin,,Germany,,With,TheGermany: Gas Levy Triggers Debate About Further Support Measures Now that the new gas surcharge has been fixed at 2.4 cents per kWh, its introduction looming on 1 October has triggered political debate about ways to support consumers, prevent political pushback, and maintain broad support for Ukraine. The levy will start at the lower end of a politically contested… August 17, 2022
Gas,Pipeline,Gazelle.,One,Part,Of,Nord,Stream,Pipeline,FromGermany: Ready for Rationing? As Russian gas deliveries via Nord Stream 1 have been reduced to 20%, a gas rationing scenario is becoming ever more likely in winter. This situation poses questions not just about the management of limited gas supplies, but also regarding domestic support measures and German strategy towards the Ukraine war. July 27, 2022
Downing,Street,In,The,Morning,Winter,,LondonUK: Uncertainty to Prevail Beyond the Tory Leadership Ballot As the Conservative membership ballot gets underway, Foreign Secretary Liz Truss appears to have a significant lead over Chancellor Rishi Sunak in early polling of party members. The contest takes place against a backdrop of rising energy, food and fuel costs, with the soaring cost of living representing the government’s… July 25, 2022
Westminster,And,Elizabeth,Clock,In,LondonUK: Can the Tories Replace Johnson Before the Summer Recess? Following PM Boris Johnson’s resignation, he remains intent on acting as caretaker until party conference season in October; to that end, he has formed a new cabinet. However, many Conservatives will not tolerate this, calling for either a deputy to take the reins or for the party to expedite the… July 7, 2022
River,Exe,At,Tiverton,Mid,Devon,England,Uk,EuropeUK: Brexit Might Not Save Johnson On June 23, weeks of turmoil for the government came to a head with two crushing by-election losses. With the PM’s standing already significantly weakened after 41% of his MPs voted to remove him in a no-confidence vote two weeks ago, Boris Johnson’s position looks increasingly shaky. The Tories now… June 24, 2022
London,-,2014,April,24,:,There,Is,Tourism,TrafficUK: The Decision About Johnson’s Leadership has Merely Been Delayed The outcome of tonight’s Conservative confidence vote in Boris Johnson is neither enough to end his premiership, nor for the PM to feel safe in his job going forward. 211 Tory MPs voted in favor of Johnson, 148 voted against him. Under current Conservative Party rules, Johnson cannot be challenged… June 6, 2022
Berlin,Skyline,City,Panorama,With,Blue,Sky,Sunset,And,TrafficGermany: Past the Budget, Domestic Issues Might Rival Ukraine for Attention Government and opposition have reached agreement on the EUR 100bn special fund for investment in the armed forces. As the fund – to be financed exclusively via new debt issuances – will be located outside the normal budget to circumvent the debt brake rule, constitutional change is required via a… May 31, 2022
Aerial,View,On,River,And,Buildings,In,City,Center,OfUK/EU: Time for the Annual Post-Brexit antics The UK government seems increasingly determined to introduce legislation that would empower it to unilaterally scrap key customs provisions under the Northern Ireland protocol. As in the past, the annual peak in post-Brexit tensions is driven by the seismic and unresolved shifts in domestic UK electoral politics. Procedurally, EU retaliation… May 12, 2022
Aerial,View,Of,Berlin,Skyline,With,Dramatic,Clouds,In,TwilightGermany: Short and Long Games Over Berlin’s Ukraine Policy Chancellor Olaf Scholz is under growing pressure from within his coalition and beyond on Berlin’s positioning towards the ongoing war in Ukraine. Sanctions and arms supplies are the two immediate topics of contestation, and moral outrage will continue pressuring Berlin towards a tougher stance over time. The longer-term question also… April 21, 2022
Irpin,,Ukraine,-,Mar.,05,,2022:,War,In,Ukraine.,PeopleTeneo Insights Takeaways – Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Advisor at WestExec Advisors and former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council; Carsten Nickel, Teneo Managing Director and expert on Europe; Orson Porter, Teneo Senior Managing Director and government affairs expert; and Andrius Tursa, Teneo’s Central & Eastern Europe Advisor… March 31, 2022
A,Bunch,Of,Inactive,Oil,Well,Pumps,In,Western,Siberia.EU: How Far Will Sanctions Go? As the war in Ukraine intensifies, sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports are the ultimate frontier in the Western political debate. Key politicians are trying to gain time, but moral outrage about Russia’s actions on the battlefield might eventually leave them with few alternatives. EU foreign affairs ministers are… March 4, 2022
Marousi,,Attica,-,Greece,-,December,12,2021:,Prometheus,VaccinationEurope: Managing the Pandemic – What we are Watching 2.3.22 This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has more than doubled… February 3, 2022
Reception,Hall,Covid-19,Vaccination,Centre,For,Teenager.,Turin,,Italy,-Europe: Managing the Pandemic – What we are Watching 1.20.22 This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom As the omicron wave appears to have passed, the seven-day… January 20, 2022
Leeds,Uk,,10th,April,2020:,People,In,The,Uk,QueuingEurope: Managing the Pandemic – What we are Watching 12.16.21 This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom With more than 78,000 cases, the UK recorded its highest-ever… December 16, 2021
Madrid,,Spain;,April,17,2021:,Queue,Of,People,Waiting,ToEurope: Managing the Pandemic – What we are Watching 12.2.21 This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections keeps oscillating around the mark of… December 2, 2021
Aerial,View,On,River,And,Buildings,In,City,Center,OfUK/EU: Brexit Meant Brexit, But What Does Article 16 Mean? The Brexit saga might be headed for yet another round of year-end deadlines. Talks between the EU and the UK continue this week. But in Brussels, fears are increasing that the UK might follow through on its threats and trigger Article 16, putting the application of the Brexit deal’s Northern… November 12, 2021
Madrid,,Spain;,April,17,2021:,Queue,Of,People,Waiting,ToEurope: Managing The Pandemic – What We Are Watching 11.8.21 This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has fallen back below the mark… November 8, 2021
Big,Ben,And,House,Of,Parliament,On,Thames,RiverUK: How to Spend Like Brown While Trying to Sound Like Thatcher Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s autumn budget and spending review gave an impression of the political uncertainty that will likely persist until the end of this parliament. Only the next general election will tell whether the Tories are now also structurally the party of formerly working-class constituencies outside London. In the meantime,… October 29, 2021
Reception,Hall,Covid-19,Vaccination,Centre,For,The,Elderly,Over,80Europe: Managing The Pandemic – What We Are Watching 10.21.21 This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections is now on a clear upwards… October 21, 2021
Berli,,Germany,-,May,1,,2018:,The,Reichstag,Building,InGermany: What to Watch On and Beyond Election Night Ahead of the 26 September Bundestag elections, the overall polling picture remains unchanged. At around 25%, the Social Democrats (SPD) of Finance Minister Olaf Scholz continue to lead ahead of Armin Laschet’s Christian alliance (CDU/CSU) – even if the latter seems to have climbed slightly farther above 20% again. Therefore,… September 22, 2021
Cairnryan,Harbour,Scotland,P,And,O,Car,Ferry,To,LarneUK: Electoral Politics Driving Supply Chain Disruptions The UK has once more extended the grace periods for border checks in the Irish Sea – this time, however, accepted by the EU. While this will mean more time for both sides to find solutions, hopes for a renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol remain unrealistic. As discussed in… September 14, 2021
Berlin,,Germany,-,May,27,,2020:,Berlin,,Germany,May,27,Germany: Beyond the Afghanistan Disaster, a Migration Debate Might Loom Amid Berlin’s badly delayed evacuation mission for Afghanistan, centrist parties seem to have decided that looking ill-prepared is preferable to a conversation about Germany’s foreign and migration policies of the last decades. In a somewhat nonchalant demeanor, Chancellor Angela Merkel pointed at “wrong assessments” regarding the changing situation on the… August 24, 2021
Thessaloniki,,Greece,-,June,15,2021:,Mega,Covid-19,Vaccination,CenterEurope: Managing the Pandemic – What We Are Watching 8.12.21 This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.   Graph of the week Spain Covid-19 cases have started to… August 12, 2021
Madrid,,Spain;,April,17,2021:,Queue,Of,People,Waiting,ToEurope: Managing the Pandemic – What We Are Watching 7.29.21 This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.   Graph of the Week Spain The Delta variant now makes… July 29, 2021
London,,Uk,-,April,22,,2021:,Peole,In,The,QueueUK: A Test Case for the Downside Risks of Vaccination Success UK pandemic politics point to the downside risks that might be associated with a quick vaccine roll-out. The UK has been faster, more efficient, and the vaccine has been accepted by a larger share of the population than in almost any other developed country apart from Israel. This success, however,… July 23, 2021
Lucca,,Italy,-,April,09,,2017:,The,Facade,Of,TheG7/Europe: The Politics Behind (and ahead for) the Tax Deal Engineering global political support for the G7 deal on corporate taxation will be tricky, especially for Pillar 2. The risk of transatlantic trade frictions has been lowered but remains alive, as the highly political tax debate is unlikely to be overcome by global technical agreements. Any EU legislation implementing the… June 10, 2021
Old,Town,Edinburgh,And,Edinburgh,Castle,In,Scotland,UkUK: Scottish Independence Keeps Simmering, English Realignment Continues Despite the SNP's win in Scotland, a second independence referendum is not likely before the next UK general election, which might now be held around 2023. Now essentially a different party from the Conservatives who returned to power over a decade ago, PM Boris Johnson's Tories did extremely well in… May 12, 2021
Strasbourg,,France,,July,3,,2019:,European,Parliament,In,Strasbourg,,FranceEU: The State of the Debate on Further Stimulus As national recovery plans are being finalized, it appears unlikely that the EU will expand its post-pandemic recovery resources anytime soon. A gradual reopening of economies will likely make it difficult to argue politically for additional public spending, especially in frugal states. The key debate to watch is that of… May 3, 2021
shutterstock_1690377112Germany: Beyond the Conservative Candidature Conundrum After Sunday’s regional elections, the pressure on Christian Democrats (CDU) leader Armin Laschet has increased. However, he remains unlikely to renounce the Christian alliance’s (CDU/CSU) chancellor candidacy for CSU leader Markus Soeder. With a view to business implications – from fiscal to regulatory policies – the most important factor will… March 19, 2021
London,,Uk,-,August,19,,2015:,Her,Majesty’s,Treasury,Building,UK: Sunak’s Budget Gives, Takes Away, and May Give Again Before Election Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s 3 March budget is a play in three acts, the first of which sees the continuation of economic support until the lockdown is eased. While the second part is aimed at reassuring fiscal conservatives with tax hikes, the third act might well consist of some marginal tax… March 5, 2021
Panoromic,Aerial,View,Of,Berlin,Skyline,With,Famous,Tv,TowerGermany: Black Zero, Not Debt Brake is the True Signpost A renewed debate has emerged about the infamous debt brake after, in a newspaper op-ed, the chief of Angela Merkel’s chancellery argued for changing the constitution to effectively abandon the rule. This, however, remains highly unlikely. Instead, the more interesting question is whether the next government might drop the “black… January 29, 2021
shutterstock_260465354Teneo Insights Webinar: What to Watch in 2021 Carsten Nickel, Managing Director at Teneo, Jon Alterman, Teneo Senior Advisor, Anne Frühauf, Managing Director at Teneo, Nicholas Watson, Managing Director at Teneo, and Gabriel Wildau, Senior Vice President at Teneo, join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss what business leaders should look out for in 2021.  … December 3, 2020
shutterstock_1774035905Germany: Scholz Faces Difficult Balancing Acts Chancellor Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partners, the Social Democrats (SPD), have nominated Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as their chancellor candidate for the next Bundestag elections. The early decision – more than one year ahead of the September 2021 polls – reflects how limited the party’s personnel options were, making Scholz… August 14, 2020
shutterstock_1678175782Europe: The Politics of Exit Strategies In this piece, we provide an overview of the coronavirus lockdown exit strategies currently being planned by selected European governments and the surrounding politics. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. April 16, 2020
Abstract Polygon Map of Europe ContinentEurope: Politics of the Coronavirus Please click here for the latest edition of our daily Europe coronavirus update. Today we include a table summarizing the exit strategies from lockdowns being discussed in selected European countries. April 13, 2020
shutterstock_1625951248Coronavirus: A Weekly Update from Teneo – Call Transcript and Recording from 4.9.20 Bradley A. Connor, M.D., Carsten Nickel, Christian Buss, Orson Porter & Tony Sayegh join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss the latest updates and developments regarding the effect of the coronavirus.   Listen to the Call   Kevin Kajiwara (KK): Welcome everybody to… April 9, 2020
shutterstock_1023242146UK/EU: Implications of the Tory Majority Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Conservatives have won a clear majority of 80 seats in the general election. The opposition Labour party collapsed, while the Liberal Democrats also lost seats. The other big winners were the Scottish Nationalists (SNP). As a result, Johnson’s Brexit deal will now swiftly be passed through… December 13, 2019
shutterstock_1023242146UK/EU: From Radical Proposals to a Hung Parliament? Ahead of the 12 December general elections, party manifestos and the polls are in focus. Party programs are expected to be revealed over the coming days. However, the previously discussed impact of polarization is already becoming clear: parties are trying to outperform each other with radical proposals. For instance, the… November 6, 2019
Abstract Polygon Map of Europe ContinentEurope: What You Will Hear in 2019, and What Matters Four topics are likely to draw significant attention in 2019 in Europe: Brexit, the European Parliament elections, polls in Southern Europe, and a crucial ballot in Poland. Below we cut through the noise they will likely generate in order to focus on the issues that will matter: TOPIC 1: The… December 18, 2018
Flags of Japan and the European Union on meshing gearsEU/Japan: JEEPA Deepens Economic and Political Ties Amid Tensions With the US Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met European Union (EU) leaders Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker in Tokyo on 17 July to sign the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (JEEPA) and a separate Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). While both agreements have been under negotiation since 2013, the upgrading of economic and political… July 17, 2018