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Carsten Nickel

Managing Director

Carsten Nickel is a Managing Director with Teneo in London. Previously based in Brussels and Berlin, he co-launched the firm’s political risk advisory service in 2013.

Carsten helps companies and investors anticipate and manage the impact of geopolitics on their businesses. As Deputy Director of Research, he coordinates Teneo’s global political risk coverage, its team of analysts and key client relationships. He is also a regular commentator for a variety of media outlets.

Prior to joining Teneo, Carsten was an analyst in the Europe practice of Eurasia Group. Earlier, he worked for a member of the German Bundestag in Berlin.

Carsten holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford and a master’s degree from the LSE. He teaches at Sciences Po Paris.

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Weekly Political Compass 3.31.25Weekly Political Compass 3.31.25 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s possible response to the U.S.’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff escalation. Meanwhile, China flexes its military muscle, South Korea continues to wait for the presidential… March 31, 2025 By Wolfango Piccoli, Carsten Nickel
France: Immediate and Longer-term Implications of the Le Pen VerdictFrance: Immediate and Longer-term Implications of the Le Pen Verdict After the verdict against far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen, one signpost to watch is the likely appeal procedure. However, unlike the four-year prison sentence, the five-year ban from running for office applies immediately, even while any appeal is ongoing. This does not only badly undermine Le Pen’s chances of running… March 31, 2025 By Carsten Nickel
Weekly Political Compass 2.24.25Weekly Political Compass 2.24.25 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Germany’s election result. Meanwhile, Japan’s budget looks set to progress, but South Africa is struggled to get its budget back on track. Elsewhere, China’s live-fire drills… February 24, 2025 By Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli
Weekly Political Compass 2.18.25Weekly Political Compass 2.18.25 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Germany’s upcoming federal election. Meanwhile, the EU considers its response to JD Vance’s Munich speech, Russia and the U.S. have begun high-level discussions over Ukraine, and… February 18, 2025 By Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli
What to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword: The Global Year Ahead As the dust settles on a momentous U.S. election and the incoming administration takes shape, the geopolitical landscape for 2025 is already coming into focus. Against this backdrop, our team of analysts once again explores the critical global trends and regional hotspots demanding attention in… December 10, 2024 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Manji Cheto, Anne Frühauf, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Meghan McDonough, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Jon B. Alterman, James Crossland, Nate Tamarin
France: Government Unlikely to Survive Censure MotionFrance: Government Unlikely to Survive Censure Motion A motion of censure will be voted in the National Assembly (AN) on 4 December. Barring an (unlikely) last-minute deal, Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s minority government is set to lose, forcing him to tender his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron. Last-minute Offers Barnier triggered article 49.3 of the constitution after… December 3, 2024 By Carsten Nickel
Weekly Political Compass 11.4.24Weekly Political Compass 11.4.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Germany’s coalition troubles. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling LDP is trying to form a minority administration, France’s junior trade minister is in China, and Moldova’s re-elected president is… November 4, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Carsten Nickel
EU: Geoeconomic Implications of Tariffs on Chinese EVsEU: Geoeconomic Implications of Tariffs on Chinese EVs EU member states are expected to decide on 4 October to make currently preliminary tariffs on Chinese EVs permanent. While last-minute efforts to find a negotiated solution have been ongoing, it seems unlikely that the skeptics can overturn the European Commission’s proposal. A so-called qualified majority would be required where… October 1, 2024 By Carsten Nickel
Weekly Political Compass 9.30.24Weekly Political Compass 9.30.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s tariffs on Chinese EVs. Meanwhile, a long-time critic of the late Shinzo Abe will become Japan’s next prime minister, France’s new government faces its… September 30, 2024 By Carsten Nickel, Wolfango Piccoli
Weekly Political Compass 7.15.24Weekly Political Compass 7.15.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the election of the European Commission president. Meanwhile, China has criticized a new US law regarding Tibet, the UK government’s agenda will be outlined in the… July 15, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Carsten Nickel
UK: The Structural Crisis Behind Electoral Volatility – Policy ImplicationsUK: The Structural Crisis Behind Electoral Volatility – Policy Implications Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet contains hardly any surprises. His line-up largely equals the shadow cabinet from Labour’s opposition days. After the first cabinet meeting today, 6 July, the question remains how quickly Chancellor Rachel Reeves might begin recalibrating Labour’s implicit promise of no tax hikes. This reflects the… July 6, 2024 By Carsten Nickel
Weekly Political Compass 5.28.24Weekly Political Compass 5.28.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the upcoming UK general election. Meanwhile, the leaders of China, Japan and South Korea met in Seoul, Lithuanians have chosen a new president, Claudia Sheinbaum continues… May 28, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Carsten Nickel
EU Elections 2024 Spotlight: Promises and Risks Abound for the Future of Defence in EuropeEU Elections 2024 Spotlight: Promises and Risks Abound for the Future of Defence in Europe The European Parliament (EP) elections of 6-9 June and the appointment of a new European Commission by year-end promise to be consequential for a wide range of policy issues. In this joint briefing, our geopolitical advisory and EU teams reflect on the growing importance of defence in the European political… May 7, 2024 By Carsten Nickel, Benoit Cormier
Europe: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine SupportEurope: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine Support If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical… January 30, 2024 By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Wolfango Piccoli
What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,… December 6, 2023 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, Emily Stromquist, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Shamaila Ashraf, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Jon B. Alterman, Meghan McDonough, James Crossland, Orson Porter
UK: Implications of Sunak’s Cabinet ReshuffleUK: Implications of Sunak’s Cabinet Reshuffle Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has reshuffled his cabinet in what is likely to be the last major change of the Conservative front bench ahead of the general election expected before the end of 2024. The return of former prime minister David Cameron as foreign secretary came as a major surprise. November 13, 2023 By Carsten Nickel, Matthew Grainger
Netherlands: Ahead of Elections, a Dominant but Fragmented Political RightNetherlands: Ahead of Elections, a Dominant but Fragmented Political Right With less than three weeks to go until the 22 November general elections, fragmentation remains the name of the game in Dutch politics. However, despite a complicated political landscape with up to 18 parties currently expected to be represented in the 150-seat lower house of parliament, some overall trends will… November 3, 2023 By Carsten Nickel
Germany: Security Strategy Won’t Resolve Bigger Political, Economic Trade-OffsGermany: Security Strategy Won’t Resolve Bigger Political, Economic Trade-Offs After prolonged haggling, the government has, for the first time, agreed on a so-called national security strategy. This reflects a new awareness of geopolitical risks, but meaningful changes will not be brought about via such macro documents and associated strategy debates and workshops. These appeal only… June 15, 2023 By Carsten Nickel
Germany: The Domestic Politics Behind the Government’s China PolicyGermany: The Domestic Politics Behind the Government’s China Policy Following Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock's visit to Beijing, the domestic debate about China policy continues among foreign policy elites. Compared to French President Emmanuel Macron, Baerbock took a more hawkish position. However, German foreign policy is made by coalition governments, not the president. As a result, Baerbock's stance must be… April 18, 2023 By Carsten Nickel
Weekly Political Compass 4.17.23Weekly Political Compass 4.17.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at German China policy. Meanwhile, Chinese house prices are rising, local elections will be held in the north of Kosovo, Argentine officials hope… April 17, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Carsten Nickel
Germany: Green Transition Continues to Create Coalition FrictionsGermany: Green Transition Continues to Create Coalition Frictions Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s traffic light coalition has agreed on a plan to phase out fuel heating systems in private houses. This follows last week’s agreement on a set of measures to boost the green infrastructure transition, achieved after days of protracted talks. However, financing a support package for households is… April 3, 2023 By Carsten Nickel
What to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it… December 14, 2022 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, James Brady, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Meghan McDonough, Jon B. Alterman
EU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in SightEU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in Sight The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications… October 31, 2022 By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Gabriel Wildau
Germany: Nuclear Energy and Trade – Reining in the GreensGermany: Nuclear Energy and Trade – Reining in the Greens In a rare move for any German chancellor, Olaf Scholz has unilaterally decided to keep all three remaining nuclear power blocks in service throughout the winter until April 2023. Meanwhile, at a gathering of European Social Democrats, Scholz called for renewed efforts to close a transatlantic trade deal between the… October 24, 2022 By Carsten Nickel
UK: Implications of Kwarteng’s SackingUK: Implications of Kwarteng’s Sacking Prime Minister Liz Truss has sacked her chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, replacing him with relatively centrist Jeremy Hunt, in a desperate bid to calm the pushback from her own backbench MPs, markets, and voters. The dramatic move constitutes a double-edged sword: it is both testament to the PM’s extremely precarious position… October 14, 2022 By Carsten Nickel
UK: Truss Rows Back – But How Much?UK: Truss Rows Back – But How Much? After last week’s market rout and amid growing opposition from within the Conservative Party, the government has been forced into a U-turn on its plan for a tax cut for the highest earners. This follows the realization at the beginning of the current Tory conference that PM Liz Truss would… October 3, 2022 By Carsten Nickel
UK: Do Truss’s Spending Plans Point to Elections Soon?UK: Do Truss’s Spending Plans Point to Elections Soon? New Prime Minister Liz Truss finds herself at the helm of a country facing a historically difficult moment. Though the focus has naturally been on the monarchy in recent days, the PM last week presented a package of measures with far-reaching implications for the UK economy and politics more broadly. September 20, 2022 By Carsten Nickel
EU: Policy Responses to Energy Crisis Will Likely Remain ReactiveEU: Policy Responses to Energy Crisis Will Likely Remain Reactive EU governments are doing their best to prepare for a winter of lower Russian gas supplies, but global price dynamics might strain European economies. National-level measures to protect consumers and firms will remain the default response, although their growing cost will increase the popularity of policy options such as windfall… August 25, 2022 By Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Emily Stromquist
Germany: Gas Levy Triggers Debate About Further Support MeasuresGermany: Gas Levy Triggers Debate About Further Support Measures Now that the new gas surcharge has been fixed at 2.4 cents per kWh, its introduction looming on 1 October has triggered political debate about ways to support consumers, prevent political pushback, and maintain broad support for Ukraine. The levy will start at the lower end of a politically contested… August 17, 2022 By Carsten Nickel
Germany: Ready for Rationing?Germany: Ready for Rationing? As Russian gas deliveries via Nord Stream 1 have been reduced to 20%, a gas rationing scenario is becoming ever more likely in winter. This situation poses questions not just about the management of limited gas supplies, but also regarding domestic support measures and German strategy towards the Ukraine war. July 27, 2022 By Carsten Nickel