Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa severing diplomatic ties with Israel. Meanwhile, a deal between Taiwan’s two main opposition parties is in danger, voters are going to…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at South Africa’s fiscal outlook. Meanwhile, US-China relations show signs of improvement, early elections are ahead in Serbia, high-level horse trading will continue in…

A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…

President Cyril Ramaphosa remains under pressure from the Phala Phala ‘farmgate’ scandal; the investigations by the public protector investigation and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) are the main signals to watch. His finance minister stands newly accused of alleged sexual harassment. While nothing may happen while the case proceeds,…

An announcement by local scientists on 25 November that a newly identified Covid-19 variant – B1.1.529 – has been detected in the country represents another ill-timed downside for South Africa’s macro outlook. Although the variant has not yet been declared a variant of concern or interest by the WHO and…

The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s general allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) remains inadequate vis-à-vis the region’s external financing needs. Yet, the debate on how rich countries can transfer SDRs to countries in greater need has been dragging on for months. Experience with multilateral pandemic crisis management to date suggests…

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may try to turn its military defeat in Tigray into a foreign relations advantage. The endgame in the conflict remains uncertain and bears risks for Ethiopia’s internal stability and even foreign disputes. While the onus is now on Tigray’s rebel leadership to declare a ceasefire, the…

A second Covid-19 surge is putting to the test assumptions that the pandemic’s public health impact across the continent has been comparatively mild. Health crises and on-and-off lockdowns may be a recurring feature of 2021 and beyond, if (or perhaps when) fresh Covid-19 surges materialize. To date, the region is…

Carsten Nickel, Managing Director at Teneo, Jon Alterman, Teneo Senior Advisor, Anne Frühauf, Managing Director at Teneo, Nicholas Watson, Managing Director at Teneo, and Gabriel Wildau, Senior Vice President at Teneo, join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss what business leaders should look out for in 2021.  …

To date, 22 sub-Saharan African countries have signed up for the G20 debt suspension initiative. A notable exception among eligible countries is Kenya, highlighting the sovereign's alarm over potential credit rating downgrades and damage to market reputation. Attempts to secure comprehensive private sector participation appear to have failed for now,…

To date, Covid-19 infections and deaths have bucked initial worst-case expectations, but limited testing might mean the pandemic’s impact is grossly underestimated. While many governments continue to pursue relatively cautious public health strategies, growing variation is evident. Pressure for exit strategies is intensifying rapidly across the continent, but easing measures…

China is employing harsh measures to combat a rise in imported Covid-19 infections, which now outnumber local transmissions. Diplomats from African countries have issued formal complaints about racist treatment of nationals of African countries in China, but African leaders will ultimately be reluctant to antagonize Beijing. Restrictive policies and rising…

As of 4 March, there are now three confirmed COVID-19 cases in sub-Saharan Africa and the disease is likely to spread further to countries that are particularly exposed to international air traffic, i.e. Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, South Africa, and Tanzania. However, COVID-19 is unlikely to become a major…

The disaster caused by Cyclone Idai will worsen the country’s already fragile economic outlook. It could result in emergency IMF funding, though restoration of the suspended Standby Credit Facility (SCF) still seems some way off. Politically speaking, the disaster could provide a small fillip for an otherwise bruised Frelimo that…

Many Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries are gradually confronting political sea change as long-serving rulers and dominant ruling parties face increasingly uncertain futures. Nowhere is this more apparent than in South Africa, where a divided ruling party will struggle to address urgent fiscal and economic issues ahead of elections in…