Institutional Investors Significantly More Optimistic on Economic Outlook Than CFOs

Teneo report finds global finance chiefs cautious while navigating AI, tariffs and geopolitics

• New report includes the views of 332 global CFOs and institutional investors representing approximately $16.7 trillion USD of company and portfolio value
• Investors are more optimistic about the global economy than corporate CFOs, with 78% of money managers expecting economic conditions to improve in the second half of the year vs. just 43% of CFOs
• Findings show that CFOs are re-examining the location of manufacturing hubs globally, with a full 86% saying they are actively reshaping global supply chains, while also reconsidering general corporate spending and CapEx
• U.S. CFOs are more bullish than those elsewhere, with 53% expecting improvement in the second half of the year vs. only 29% of their international peers
• Slow return to M&A – but no concerns on availability of debt funding, nor the readiness of the private equity industry to do deals
• CFOs say AI is the prime driver for M&A while also causing them to rethink capital spending

Against a fast-changing landscape for international trade and tariffs, institutional investors are more optimistic about the global economy than corporate Chief Financial Officers (CFOs), with 78% of money managers expecting economic conditions to improve in the second half of the year vs. just 43% of CFOs. A full 86% of global CFOs say they are actively reshaping global supply chains, while also reconsidering general corporate spending and CapEx, a new report by Teneo has revealed.

The report represents the views of 132 global CFOs and 200 institutional investors with more than $16.7 trillion USD in combined market cap and AUM. Asked about the biggest impact of new tariffs introduced over the course of 2025, CFOs ranked supply chain management as the key priority – ahead of negative financial impacts such as reducing investment levels or cutting earnings guidance.

The report indicated that market volatility was affecting appetite for M&A. 71% of CFOs are changing their approach to M&A. More than half of CFOs and nearly 40% of investors see market volatility as the leading barrier to deals, followed closely by geopolitical uncertainty, higher cost of capital and a lack of high-quality acquisition targets. Tech disruption, which is largely driven by the rise of AI, is cited as the main accelerant (42%) to M&A and is the leading force behind increased SG&A spending (49%) and capital expenditures (50%).

Access to capital markets remains strong, with the availability of debt and the affordability of finance cited as reasons for optimism – alongside continued support from the private equity industry.

“We have been advising CFOs throughout this period of disruption, and this new environment has led to major shifts in both the decisions CFOs are faced with – and how quickly they need to move, as the choices they make today will impact their businesses over the long term,” said Christian Buss, Co-Head of Investor Relations Advisory at Teneo. “Notably, the report found that economic headwinds, including tariffs, are driving major changes in business operations. CFOs are altering supply chain management (86%), CapEx (71%) and SG&A spending (81%). Nearly a quarter are lowering earnings guidance as a result of current trade policies.”

“CFOs are navigating through unprecedented disruption as they face a new operating environment that includes heightened uncertainty around global trade, tariffs, market volatility and a changing regulatory and political environment,” said Paul Keary, CEO and co-founder of Teneo. “While CFOs and institutional investors have divergent views on their macroeconomic outlook, both remain confident about access to debt markets and their ability to afford current debt. So, while there are challenges in this unpredictable environment, there are also major opportunities for market participants who can stay one step ahead.”

Key report findings include:

Macroeconomic Outlook: Divergent Views Between CFOs, Investors and Markets

• U.S. CFOs are more bullish than those elsewhere, with 53% expecting improvement in the second half of the year vs. only 29% of their international peers.
• Investors are more optimistic about the global economy than corporate CFOs, with 78% of money managers expecting economic conditions to improve in the second half of the year vs. just 43% of CFOs.
• CFOs and investors both expect further disruption across a wide range of vectors – with CFOs focused on the macroeconomic environment (48%) as investors eye the capital market (39%) and tech (41%).
• 40% of global CFOs believe interest rate levels will rise over the coming six months, while 39% believe they will decrease. Views are largely split by market with the majority of U.S. CFOs anticipating rate increases, while 77% of UK CFOs anticipate further cuts.
• The U.S. and UK are divided on the impact of the recently inked bilateral trade deal between the two countries, with 60% of U.S. CFOs expecting positive impact vs. 17% from those in the UK.

Priorities: How CFOs Are Preparing For What Comes Next

• New economic realities are causing 71% of CFOs to change their approach to M&A.
• More than half of CFOs and nearly 40% of investors see market volatility as the leading barrier to deals, followed closely by geopolitical uncertainty, higher cost of capital and a lack of high-quality acquisition targets.
• Tech disruption, which is largely driven by the rise of AI, is cited as the main accelerant (42%) to M&A and is the leading force behind increased SG&A spending (49%) and capital expenditures (50%).
• CFOs and investors favor slightly different approaches on capital allocation. While both ranked reinvestment as their first priority (59% and 32%, respectively), buybacks were much lower on the list for CFOs as compared to investors (7% and 26%, respectively).

Operational Initiatives: What CFOs Are Doing Right Now

• Recent and ongoing adjustments to corporate strategy in the face of new economic realities include changes to hiring (84%) and R&D (67%)
• Economic headwinds, including tariffs, are affecting major change: CFOs are altering supply chain management (86%), CapEx (71%) and SG&A spending (81%). Nearly a quarter are lowering earnings guidance as a result of current policies.
• 60% of CFOs expect to hold cryptocurrencies in their corporate treasury in the coming years (and nearly all investors are supportive of this); however, only 2% hold crypto today.

Looking Ahead: Reasons For Optimism

• CFOs and investors remain confident about access to debt markets, with 67% optimistic on the affordability of debt.
• Concerns about lack of capital or pressure from activist investors affecting M&A are low amongst CFOs and investors, with investors slightly more cautious.
• Despite constant policy and economic turmoil and the general divided outlook, CFOs are optimistic about their ability to finance operations over the second half of 2025.
• 81% of CFOs are optimistic about debt market access, 70% see private equity as supportive and 68% see capital markets as a potential source of access to funding.

Teneo’s Vision 2025 CFO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted by the firm’s in-house data, insights and analytics team. The survey includes the views of 132 global public company CFOs and 200 institutional investors representing $16.7 trillion USD of company and portfolio value. The CFOs surveyed represent a global distribution of publicly traded companies. Investors surveyed include a global sampling of professional investors in investment banking, institutional investing, venture investing, asset management, private equity and hedge funds. Research was conducted between May 16-29, 2025.

For more information and to download full survey results and report, visit: https://www.teneo.com/insights/vision-2025-global-cfo-investor-survey

Contact
Stephen Meahl
New York
+1 (212) 886-1624
stephen.meahl@teneo.com