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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn decided to defer his proclamation as King for an unspecified period. For now, this is a benign development because the delay is not seen as going beyond this October. Should his proclamation not take place by the end of this month, then speculation could increase of…
The EU 27 have toughened their stance and some elements of the UK’s negotiating position are becoming clearer while others are still to be resolved. The EU has a very powerful negotiating position, but the UK Parliament could throw a spanner in the works Battle lines drawn Theresa May’s speeches at…
May has started to set out her stall after a period of preparation and technical work over the Summer. Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March, without a vote to approve this formally in Parliament. This means that the U.K. is likely to leave the EU before…
On 13 September, President Jacob Zuma will face tough questions in parliament about governance and economic plans to avert a credit rating downgrade. Although the ANC’s reform faction has stepped up its reassuring rhetoric, it is no longer able to paper over the cracks in cabinet and alarming noise from…
Formal EU-UK Brexit talks are expected to start in 2017, but negotiations between the bloc and Switzerland over the future of free movement will turn hot before the end of the year. Brexiters as well as several independent experts continue to speculate that the UK’s status as the world’s fifth…
The measurement of communication impact has become a long-standing discussion in the public relations research community. While discussions about standardized measurement date back decades (Lindenmann, 2005, pp. 3-4), the current debates about standardized measurement became prominent with the work of Michaelson and Stacks (Michaelson & Stacks, 2011). In their 2011…
Following the failed coup attempt that took place on 15 July, the ongoing deterioration of the domestic political environment is set to accelerate. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to use the failed gamble by a faction of the military to further cement his grip on power by cracking down…
Political and economic challenges are mounting and threaten to reduce growth expectations for the region for the next few years. Not since the Asian financial crisis has Southeast Asia had to contend with the combination of political and economic challenges that it now faces. Uncertainty in the major western markets…
Badly handled market interventions last summer have stimulated doubt that China’s leadership will devote the political capital to push through painful reforms in order to achieve faster growth. Anxiety over China’s economy reached new heights this summer following the crash of the Shanghai Composite Index and botched currency reform, but…
Political movements of great power can arise quickly, fueled by a demand for accountability and responsiveness in government. This is a product of the changed habits and expectations of a digitally connected world. In February 2011, I was the first foreign minister of a European country to set foot in…
Underlying tensions, including the unresolved territorial and history disputes, modernization programs and doctrinal shifts, and mounting nationalist sentiments within each country will continue to undermine efforts to put the regional order on a more stable footing. Two major flashpoints remain volatile. In Washington, D.C. and in capitals across Asia, the…
Unlike 2015, the year ahead promises few large political events but some smaller number of ones that greatly matter to business and the markets. Day-to-day politics will be preoccupied with the work lead up to 2017 elections in German, Italy and Great Britain. The first thing to note when looking…
