Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team.
This week, we take a closer look at the implications of the unexpectedly strong victory for President Javier Milei’s party in the midterms in Argentina. Elsewhere, the U.S. and China reach a framework trade deal ahead of the APEC gathering in South Korea, while U.S. trade relations are also high on the agenda for Japan, India and Brazil. Meanwhile, legal pressures continue for Turkey’s opposition, voters in the Netherlands and Tanzania go to the polls, and Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire announce the official results of their presidential elections. Finally, Serbia braces for a major protest and Mozambique’s LNG sector gets a long-awaited boost.
Global Snapshot
Following victory for President Javier Milei’s party in Argentina’s midterm elections, we ask our Spanish-speaking Latin America lead Nicholas Watson to look ahead.
What happened in the elections?
President Javier Milei and his Liberty Advances (LLA) party delivered a stronger-than-expected showing in Sunday’s midterm elections, taking just over 40% of the national vote and winning 16 of 24 provinces, including the main electoral district of Buenos Aires province. The result expands the LLA’s lower house bloc to around 110 seats with allies, close to a working majority, and gives Milei new momentum for his pro-market reform agenda. The opposition Peronists underperformed, reflecting voters continuing aversion to the main opposition, which governed from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the new centrist Provincias Unidas alliance failed to gain traction.
What are the likely implications of the results?
The result strengthens Milei’s hand but does not eliminate the need for coalition-building, particularly with the center-right Republican Proposal (PRO) and key provincial governors. A cabinet reshuffle and the December budget debates will show whether he can convert this political capital into legislative progress on tax and labor reforms. Market pressure should ease in the short term, but structural challenges remain, including low reserves, policy volatility and weak institutions. Milei’s tone was conciliatory on election night, and building bridges with moderate opposition groups will be critical for governability and the future of the structural reform agenda.
What to Watch
ASIA-PACIFIC
U.S./China
During two days of talks in Malaysia ending Sunday, top U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators reached a framework deal on tariffs, export controls, fentanyl, soybean purchases and shipbuilding fees, but most details remain unknown. Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping could finalize an agreement during talks in South Korea on Thursday.
South Korea
Leaders from the 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) grouping will gather in Gyeongju from 31 October to 1 November to discuss regional trade frictions. Besides the main summitry, several important side-meetings will take place. President Lee Jae Myung will meet counterpart Donald Trump as the two sides try to finalize a USD 350bn trade and investment deal, while rumors continue that Trump could yet arrange a surprise fourth meeting with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un during his visit to the peninsula.
U.S./Japan
New Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will hold her first meeting with President Trump in Tokyo on Tuesday, with trade, investment and defense matters topping the agenda. Along possible announcements of purchases of soybeans, trucks and LNG from the U.S., Takaichi may present the first tranche of Japan’s investment proposals under the USD 550bn framework agreed last month, with energy infrastructure and shipbuilding among the mooted sectors. On defense, Takaichi will hope her decision to accelerate Japan’s 2%-of-GDP defense spending hike will mollify U.S. demands for allies to spend more. Economic security and trilateral cooperation with South Korea on frontier technologies may also feature.
U.S./India
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar will meet Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Kuala Lumpur, as the two sides continue to manage relations. Rubio has spoken again of India diversifying its energy imports, with Indian refiners likely to reduce Russian oil imports ahead of the 21 November sanction deadline but continue sourcing from Russia in 2026. Rubio also said that Washington would expand its “strategic relationship” with Pakistan, adding that this would not harm ties with India.
EUROPE
Turkey
A Turkish court will hear new political espionage charges against Istanbul’s detained mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu. The development re-ups legal pressure on the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), whose leader Ozgur Ozel won a rare legal victory last week. The move also raises the prospect of a state-appointed trustee assuming control of the Istanbul Municipality.
Netherlands
Voters will go to the polls in snap elections on 29 October, with Geert Wilders’ far-right Freedom Party (PVV) set to win yet another round of voting, but Wilders is unlikely to be part of the next government. Instead, the two traditional centrist forces, the Christian Democrats (CDA) and the Green-Labour alliance (GL-PvdA), are staging a comeback and are set to cooperate after the vote. The key question is which of the two comes in second after the PVV, likely winning the premiership for their lead candidate. Smaller coalition partners should also be watched. An investment push targeting housing, infrastructure and defense seems likely once coalition talks eventually conclude.
EU/India
EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič will host Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal in Brussels on October 27–28 to continue India–EU FTA negotiations. The two sides aim to reach an “early harvest” agreement on two-thirds of chapters by year-end, covering tariff reductions, regulatory cooperation and non-tariff measures. However, discussions on more complex issues like investment protection and geographical indication (GI) rules remain deadlocked, leaving the path to a comprehensive FTA deal uncertain.
Serbia
On 1 November, a large demonstration is planned in Novi Sad, the country’s second-largest city, to mark one year since the collapse of a railway station canopy that killed multiple people. Turnout will show whether the student-led protest movement retains momentum and public support after a year of occasional rallies demanding accountability and calling for early elections. Government warnings of provocations and violence ahead of the protest signal a risk of clashes between protesters and police.
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil
Presidents Trump and Lula da Silva agreed to start negotiations “immediately” to address U.S. tariffs and sanctions against Brazilian officials. The focus of the talks, on the sidelines of the Kuala Lumpur East Asia Summit, was mostly trade-related, with the trial and conviction of former president Jair Bolsonaro seemingly not discussed. According to reports from those in the room, Trump asked Lula about his own imprisonment experience and praised him for his political career, “having been persecuted, recovered, proved his innocence and won a third mandate.” The meeting was viewed as positive but a reduction of the cumulative 50% tariffs to 56% of Brazilian imports may still take some time and negotiation.
AFRICA
Cote d’Ivoire and Cameroon
The official results of high-stakes elections will test political stability in Cameroon and Cote d’Ivoire. In Cameroon, today's official confirmation of nonagenarian President Paul Biya as the winner of the presidential election may fuel a protracted post-election crisis and uncertainty about his eventual succession. In Cote d’Ivoire, an expected fourth-term victory for octogenarian President Alassane Ouattara in the 25 October elections will also be controversial and may trigger some unrest, though voter apathy and low public expectations for electoral change reduce the risk of a prolonged crisis there.
Mozambique
On 24 October, TotalEnergies reportedly lifted the force majeure status on its 13mtpa Mozambique LNG project, four years after a 2021 insurgent attack. The long-delayed project is potentially transformative for Mozambique’s economy, national revenue and debt-servicing capacity, including of its USD 900mn Eurobond maturing in 2031. TotalEnergies now targets a 2029 production start, while ExxonMobil’s 18mtpa Rovuma LNG project, if finalized, could come on-stream around 2031. However, security risks, alongside political and regulatory uncertainties, continue to weigh on the business outlook.
Tanzania
On 29 October, Tanzanians will elect their next president, National Assembly members and ward councilors. President Samia Suluhu Hassan and the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party look set to win a landslide after the exclusion of the two largest opposition parties. Samia, Tanzania’s first female president who came to power unexpectedly after the death of her predecessor in John Magufuli in 2021, is running for her first full term. In the process, she has abandoned earlier promises of reform in favor of deepening authoritarianism, which may have longer-term effects on political stability, external relations and economic policy.