Growth Outlook:
Measured Confidence

Optimism Holds

The global economic outlook for the first half of 2026 remains positive but is easing year-over-year, with 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expecting improvement in 2026 (compared to 77% and 86% in 2025, respectively).

“Globally, we’re seeing a high degree of political, economic and corporate complexity, and that naturally breeds uncertainty,” says Daniel Butters, CEO, Financial Advisory, Teneo. “It’s no surprise that CEOs and investors are taking a more measured outlook.”

Notably, large-cap CEO confidence has declined 20 points since last year while mid-cap CEOs and investors remain overwhelmingly bullish. This persistent economic optimism in an era of volatility and uncertainty underscores confidence among leaders in their ability to adapt, execute and seize emerging opportunities.

“At a time when headlines are focused on the MANGO stocks, this year’s survey highlights a quiet confidence among mid-market companies,” says Tim Nixon, CEO, Management Consulting, Teneo.  “With uncertainty as a constant, agility itself is a factor for success - whether across geographic diversification, supply chain re-factoring or AI investment.”

CEOs and investors are also optimistic about the funding potential from equity markets and affordability of debt levels.

But both groups are more cautious heading into 2026 regarding access to the debt market. “On the margins, debt markets remain open, but there is more stress in the system than there has been in many years,” says Christian Buss, Co-Head of Investor Relations, Teneo. “It’s a tricky environment, with constraints at the lower end of the credit market and pressures that are percolating through the system where there is outsized exposure to lower income consumers.”

M&A Momentum Continues

M&A optimism persists but is slightly down from 2025, with 78% of CEOs and 77% of investors expecting to see more activity, compared to 83% and 87% last year. Both groups, across all regions, cite high capital costs as the primary headwind to M&A execution.

Large-cap CEOs are marginally more bullish than their mid-cap peers, with 81% anticipating increased M&A activity compared to 76%. CEOs representing the healthcare and resources industries are the most optimistic about M&A activity in 2026, and the same is true for investors with portfolios in resources, financial and industrial.

“The consolidation cycle is driving some of these behaviors, resulting in a heightened M&A appetite,” says Buss. “The regulation landscape is also more favorable in the U.S. right now, and the U.S. remains hugely important to global M&A activity.” Across regions, CEOs in LATAM, MENA and North America exhibit the strongest confidence in M&A outlook, while investors across APAC and Europe are most optimistic for deal activity heading into 2026.

Amidst this heightened deal environment, 72% of CEOs and 76% of investors globally expect a rise in investor activism through 2026.