Globalization, Recalibrated

India to Eclipse China by 2036

Within five years, CEOs believe India will reach parity with China in terms of significance to business strategies. However, by 2036 that figure leaps to 47% of CEOs who believe India to be extremely important to business (compared to 33% today), overtaking China. CEOs view India as a demand engine and talent powerhouse, with market growth and innovation set to drive global competitiveness long term. CEOs cite its “massive and young consumer market” and “growing digital infrastructure and innovation momentum,” recognizing that India has shaped into a “top strategic hub for IT and digital services.”

“This shift has major implications for the Middle East, given its proximity, youth-driven consumer market and fast-growing digital infrastructure, all of which make India an increasingly critical economic and energy partner for the region and the world,” says Nicholas McDonagh, Head of Middle East, Teneo.

The promise of India’s growth remains aspirational for now, though, cautions Kevin Kajiwara, Co-President, Political Risk Advisory, Teneo. “One of India’s competitive advantages has been in digital, for example, across IT services and call centers. That’s low hanging fruit on the AI front, so the question is what’s going to happen to those roles in the future. There is also still a lot of execution risk in India, with social tensions at play and a quasi-federal system of government that can create operational complexities.”

While India’s rise is coming into focus, there is little doubt China will remain central to any business and investment strategy long term. The investors and CEOs surveyed point out that China’s growing middle class, production affordability, supply chain scale, energy sources and R&D investments remain unmatched. “China’s business is defined by a relentless drive to adapt, lead and innovate,” says Lauren Chung, CEO, Asia-Pacific Strategy & Communications, Teneo.

Deglobalization Accelerates

CEOs (60%) and investors (57%) agree that deglobalization is accelerating. However, views are nuanced by geography, with CEOs in MENA and APAC stating that deglobalization is progressing at a slower pace, while leaders in LATAM see it advancing with speed. “This divergence reflects where each region sits in the current reconfiguration of the global supply chain,” says Juan José Perojo, Head of Financial Advisory in Latin America, Teneo. “In Latin America, executives might feel deglobalization more sharply because the region is being pulled directly into U.S. and European supply-chain realignment. Nearshoring, commodities and energy transition investments create both opportunity and exposure, which could make the pace of change appear faster and more structural.”

“By contrast, CEOs in MENA and APAC are experiencing the same forces with a degree of insulation. For example, MENA continues to benefit from strong investment flows tied to sovereign-driven development programs and energy transition logistics, while APAC enjoys robust regional trade even as global supply chains rewire.”

“I believe what we’re seeing is not necessarily the deceleration of globalization, but globalization changing shape,” says Chung. “2025 was a year of profound change in the global trading order and one of heightened geopolitical complexity. This led to the emergence of new economic geometries. When traditional pathways to trade and investment are blocked, inevitably new pathways for investment, trade and innovation will form.”

Optimizing for Disruption

If it feels like the world is at a crossroads, CEOs and investors agree, with both camps evenly split over whether the state of geopolitics today is a unique and temporary phenomenon that can be navigated, versus the start of a long-term reordering of politics, policies and the post-World War II international order. “We are in a period of profound change in the global operating environment,” says Kajiwara. “The many variables at play are tectonic, fast-moving and unprecedented. Therefore, maximum corporate agility is needed because it’s very difficult to make a strong bet on exactly where things will go.”

While most CEOs and investors say businesses are now optimized for disruption and unpredictable geopolitical conditions, CEOs are expecting more technological, supply chain and capital markets disruption than investors. However, they also feel confident in their preparations for handling these factors.

CEOs are particularly confident (83%) in their ability to handle ESG disruption, with 96% having already made changes to ESG policies and 48% refreshing their learning as to what matters most to their key stakeholders.