Executive Summary

Cautious Confidence

With 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expecting the global economy to improve over the first six months of 2026, optimism is strong for economic growth, albeit tempered compared to last year. Nearly half of CEOs and investors are preparing to increase hiring and international and domestic investment in 2026.

Mid-cap CEOs are more bullish: 80% expect improvement over the first six months of 2026, compared to just 31% of large-cap executives.

The M&A outlook remains strong, with more than 75% of CEOs and investors expecting increased activity in 2026. However, both groups cite higher capital costs as the top barrier.

U.S. Leads, India Emerges, Deglobalization Continues

The U.S. remains the world’s most attractive investment destination for CEOs who are undeterred by policy volatility and enticed by the prospect of regulatory improvements by the Trump administration.

Eighty-two percent of CEOs and investors also see APAC as a top investment priority, with India on the rise. By 2036, CEOs expect India to surpass China in strategic importance, reflecting its dual role as a demand engine and talent powerhouse. At the same time, nearly 60% of CEOs and investors anticipate that deglobalization will accelerate in 2026. However, when asked whether these geopolitical shifts represent a temporary phenomenon or a long-term reordering of the post-war status quo, results were evenly split, reinforcing that the only constant right now is uncertainty.

The Chase for AI ROI

AI readiness is a near-universal priority for CEOs and investors, and after years of experimentation, CEOs have the confidence to double down (68% are increasing investment).

But as efforts shift from hype to execution, businesses are under pressure to show ROI from rising AI spend. Large-cap CEOs are seeing solid returns on current programs, particularly across administration, internal efficiency and customer-facing applications. However, 84% of these CEOs predict that positive returns from new AI initiatives will take longer than six months to achieve. In contrast, investors are pushing for faster impact: 53% expect positive ROI in six months or less.

AI: The Unexpected Workforce Dividend

While AI will have an undeniable long-term impact on the future of jobs, most CEOs expect it to drive a near-term increase in hiring across all levels in 2026. Businesses are reshaping their workforces to accelerate returns on investment from an efficiency, cost and commercial perspective.

AI enablement and upskilling will be top talent priorities, reflecting a balanced approach to building automation and human capabilities. Eighty-seven percent of CEOs feel confident that their organizations are prepared for future technological disruption but predict that future leaders will struggle to keep pace with tech advancements. They believe that agility and creativity will be the most important traits for a new generation of CEOs.

Methodology

For more information about the Vision 2026 survey, please contact [email protected].

Teneo’s Vision 2026 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted by the firm’s in-house data, insights and analytics team. The survey includes the views of more than 350 global public company CEOs and 400 institutional investors representing approximately $19 trillion USD of company and portfolio value.

CEOs represent a global distribution of publicly traded companies with a minimum annual revenue of $1 billion USD. Large-cap companies are defined as $10 billion+ USD in annual revenue; mid-cap companies are defined as $1 billion USD – $9.99 billion USD in annual revenue.

Investors surveyed include a global sampling of professional investors in investment banking, institutional investing, venture investing, asset management, private equity and hedge funds.

The research was conducted between October 14th and November 10th, 2025.

Note: Some columns throughout the report may not total to 100% due to rounding.