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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Andrius Tursa helps Teneo’s clients navigate political risks in Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.
Andrius has been working as a political risk consultant since 2012. Some of his previous clients include Eurasia Group, IHS Markit, Fitch Solutions and the Economist Intelligence Unit. Andrius is also an experienced labor market policy researcher and evaluator. In 2017, he co-founded Lithuania-based research and consulting company Policy Impact Lab.
Andrius has a master’s degree in global governance and diplomacy from the University of Oxford and holds an honors bachelor’s degree in international development from the University of California, Los Angeles. Currently, he is based in Vilnius, Lithuania.
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at new EU sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Thailand’s former prime minister was released from jail, the European Commission president is seeking a second term, Brazil’s president has…
Public resilience is gradually eroding and will be further tested by unpopular mobilization plans, uncertainty about external military assistance and the worsening situation on the frontlines. Unless military support from the US is renewed in the near term, Russia’s military advantage will grow and might result in new territorial advances.
If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical…
The fourth Ukraine peace formula meeting in Davos once again exposed vast differences between Kyiv and Moscow on the format and content of any future negotiations. At this point, there is little public and political will in Ukraine to open talks with Russia, but the situation might change later in…
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
A recommendation by the European Commission (EC) to start EU accession talks is a symbolic move that heightens optimism in Ukraine about the country’s future amid Russia’s devastating invasion. The launch of the talks would put Kyiv on a long-term reform pathway and could become a unifying objective for pro-Western…
Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not achieved the presumed military and political objectives so far and the prospects of a breakthrough appear limited. Kyiv is expected to adopt a more defensive approach if uncertainty about US military support continues, and Russia intensifies its land and air attacks in winter months. The initial…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the Polish election result. Meanwhile, China will host its third Belt and Road Forum, Italy’s government has approved its 2024 budget, and the…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the political outlook in Slovakia. Meanwhile, Indonesia unveils an important rail project funded through the Belt and Road Initiative. In Greece, New Democracy (ND) is expected…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Ukrainian grain exports to Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Japan’s prime minister is set to reshuffle his cabinet, elections in Russia returned…
Although an EU ban on Ukrainian grain imports to five Central and East European (CEE) countries expires in mid-September, discussions on extending the ban are already restarting. Russia is likely seeking to disrupt Ukraine’s counteroffensive by stepping up its own offensive actions in northeastern parts of Ukraine. Following the arrival…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at drone attacks in Russia. Meanwhile, the Philippines will create a sovereign wealth fund, Turkey’s president will announce a new cabinet, regional gubernatorial…
The first instances of nationalization since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are indicative of a further worsening business climate for foreign entities, many of which are continuing operations in Russia or are going through a lengthy and complicated exit process. As anticipated, foreign businesses are also…
A month after the snap parliamentary elections, Bulgaria is not closer to forming a government. The EU is expected to extend tariff-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine until June 2024, but some exceptions will likely be made for certain CEE countries. Multilateral talks on extending…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Serbia-Kosovo talks. Meanwhile, the leaders of Japan and South Korea will meet, Turkey’s election campaign is getting increasingly tense, and a fake…
Local management buyouts and the sale of assets to Russian investors have been the most common approaches used by foreign companies exiting the Russian market. Companies from countries deemed "unfriendly" by the Kremlin face a constantly evolving and increasingly restrictive regulatory environment, which makes exiting a lengthy and costly process.
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications…
Massive air strikes on critical infrastructure and civilians across Ukraine aimed to “punish” Kyiv for targeting the strategic Crimean Bridge and mitigate domestic criticism for military setbacks elsewhere. Russia’s failure to stabilize the situation on the frontlines is likely to prompt more escalatory and asymmetric measures targeting Ukraine and its…
Viktor Orban’s government is rushing with anti-corruption reforms not to lose access to more than 13bn of EU funds. An eventual compromise is likely, but Budapest’s access to EU funds will remain conditional on compliance with anti-corruption and rule-of-law reforms for the foreseeable future. While formally unrelated to EU funds,…
The heavily industrialized, trade-dependent, and energy-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are particularly vulnerable to high energy prices, and economic slowdown in Western Europe. A total shutoff of Russian gas flows to Europe would likely lead to highly disruptive gas shortages in countries like Hungary or Serbia. The…
Details about Ukraine's counteroffensive in the Kherson region remain sparse due to Kyiv's request for operational silence. However, the success/failure of the military operation might have profound political and military implications for both sides and shape the trajectory of the war. A series of Ukrainian strikes on the bridges over…
EU governments are doing their best to prepare for a winter of lower Russian gas supplies, but global price dynamics might strain European economies. National-level measures to protect consumers and firms will remain the default response, although their growing cost will increase the popularity of policy options such as windfall…
Hungary approaches crunch time to address the European Commission's (EC's) rule of law concerns, which could result in funding cuts. The leaders of Serbia and Kosovo are set to hold a series of meetings in Brussels in an attempt to de-escalate bilateral tensions. Following the meetings, Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic…
Recent explosions in Crimea symbolize a new stage of the war characterized by Ukraine’s strikes on Russian targets well beyond the frontline, and an increased focus on southern Ukraine. Kyiv is still reportedly preparing for the consequential counteroffensive in Kherson, although the details remain unclear. Moscow likely hopes that mounting…
NATO’s commitments to boost military presence across Europe and overhaul its strategic approach to Russia are reassuring for the alliance’s eastern flank. However, there are multiple questions about the timing and implementation of the outlined plans. Despite the unity demonstrated at the NATO summit, there is still no agreement on…
There is no end in sight to Russia’s war in Ukraine, and relations with the West will likely continue to deteriorate. Even if Russia intensifies its offensive in the southeastern Donbas region, it is unlikely to achieve a quick breakthrough and could get involved in a costly war of attrition.
On 12 April, a group of deputies from the ruling United Russia party submitted for parliament’s consideration a draft bill on the external administration of foreign-owned companies that have left or suspended operations in Russia after the start of the so-called “special military operation” on 24 February. The bill is…
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Senior Advisor at WestExec Advisors and former Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council; Carsten Nickel, Teneo Managing Director and expert on Europe; Orson Porter, Teneo Senior Managing Director and government affairs expert; and Andrius Tursa, Teneo’s Central & Eastern Europe Advisor…
Russia is seeking to solidify its defensive positions around Kyiv and is increasingly focusing on taking control of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, particularly the Mariupol port. At home, President Vladimir Putin is taking extreme measures to mitigate the risk of public and political discontent with the war and its…
The situation in Ukraine remains dynamic and could evolve according to multiple different scenarios in the coming weeks. A snapshot of each scenario is below. Russia’s likely attempts to take control of the besieged city of Mariupol, its increasingly brutal warfare tactics, and potential attacks on weapon supplies from the…
The government is scrambling to shore up the country’s economy amid wide-ranging Western sanctions and an exodus of foreign companies from Russia. The government’s proposal to nationalize assets of foreign-owned companies that have left the Russian market has received President Vladimir Putin’s approval and appears likely to be adopted. Russian…
Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed republics in Donbas as independent states give Moscow multiple options and make their return under Kyiv’s control very unlikely in the foreseeable future. An important signpost to watch is Russia’s interpretation of the borders of LPR and DPR, which have claims over territories in Donetsk…
Moscow has indicated its willingness to continue negotiations with the West and is finalizing its responses to the US and NATO. A planned meeting between Russian and Belarusian presidents later this week could reveal whether Russia plans to keep its forces in Belarus after the end of their joint exercises.
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has more than doubled…
The strong public will to resist a potential invasion highlights the challenges that Russia would face in an attempt to occupy and maintain new territories in Ukraine. However, Moscow could seek to exploit the intensifying political competition and declining trust in Ukraine’s political leadership to its own benefit. On 26…
The meeting between the US and Russian foreign ministers later today is unlikely to bring military de-escalation or diplomatic breakthroughs. Persisting rule of law and corruption-related issues in Poland and Hungary could strengthen calls for the European Commission to launch the so-called “conditionality regime.” Despite the promising start of talks,…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom As the omicron wave appears to have passed, the seven-day…
Having survived widespread protests last week, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is moving to address socio-economic grievances and consolidate his grip on power. However, in the absence of structural economic and political reforms, the risk of renewed public unrest will remain elevated. By helping to preserve Tokayev’s rule,…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom With more than 78,000 cases, the UK recorded its highest-ever…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections keeps oscillating around the mark of…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has fallen back below the mark…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections is now on a clear upwards…
The deepening rule of law dispute between Warsaw and Brussels heightens the risk of further restrictions on Poland’s access to EU funds. Reduced EU funding and rising concerns about Poland’s future membership in the EU could erode voter support for the ruling Law and Justice party in the medium term.
Concerns over security and uncontrolled migration have led to inconsistent and uncoordinated reactions from Central Asian governments to the Taliban coming to power in Afghanistan. Multiple risks stemming from the uncertain political outlook in Afghanistan are underpinning closer cooperation between the Central Asian countries, Russia and China. The reaction of…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week Spain Covid-19 cases have started to…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the Week Spain The Delta variant now makes…
Russia’s saber-rattling near Donbas and Crimea is likely driven by Kyiv’s actions against pro-Kremlin figures/entities in Ukraine, the growing tensions between Moscow and the West as well as domestic pressures within Russia. However, a major escalation of the conflict with Ukraine would likely bring more damage than benefit to Moscow.
According to preliminary data from the National Electoral Commission (PKW), incumbent President Andrzej Duda – supported by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party – narrowly won the second round of the presidential election held on 12 July. With nearly all ballots counted, Duda secured 51.2% of votes, leaving his…
The 10 May presidential election has not been canceled, but no voting will take place on the scheduled date. This should lead to a presidential poll entirely held by postal ballot in the coming few months, although the process and timeline are unclear. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party…
