Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Argentina’s presidential elections. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and the U.S. will meet, a former PM returns as British foreign secretary, Brazil is…

This week, Chile’s constitution-writing process moves to a new stage amid uncertainty as to whether the current draft can win approval without major modifications. In Mexico, presidential favorite Claudia Sheinbaum is towing the line of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) on tax reform. Revenue-raising measures should go before Brazil’s…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Chile’s constitutional re-write process. Meanwhile, two senior US officials have arrived in China, France’s parliament will hold a vote on the retirement age, the focus in…

This week, expect political noise in Mexico as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) looks to wrest two states from opposition control ahead of the 2024 elections, with the opposition likely hoping for a damage limitation exercise. Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is hosting what has been described as…

This week, Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso could be impeached – unless he exercises his right to dissolve the legislature before it can remove him: the political outlook appears complex however events of this week evolve. Brazil’s government continues to face challenges in Congress. Argentina’s inflation problem is getting worse with…

This week, Colombia’s government will use Easter to twist legislative arms in the (probably forlorn) hope of keeping its reform agenda undiluted. Mexico’s election watchdog appears to have dodged an out-and-out power grab. In Ecuador, the next stage of the impeachment process against President Guillermo Lasso gets underway. Chile’s security…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Mexico. Meanwhile, the fortunes of Japan’s prime minister are ticking up again, elections will be held in Estonia, fuel tax rates are creating debate in Brazil,…

This week, Peru continues to face severe volatility. Meanwhile, a regional summit in Argentina marks the first trip abroad of Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva since his recent inauguration. Bilateral agreements between Argentina and Brazil may be more substantive than anything emerging from the summit. Separately, Argentina’s debt…

This week, Peru remains in crisis amid congressional resistance to bringing elections forward. In Brazil, there will be another attempt to vote for a spending cap waiver ahead of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s inauguration on 1 January. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) should release the…

A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…

This week, Peru’s political situation remains unsettled as new President Dina Boluarte tries to rein in protests that followed the ousting of Pedro Castillo. In Brazil, an increase to the government spending cap continues to work its way through Congress. Meanwhile, there may not be time to approve contentious electoral…

This week, Mexico’s electoral reform has mobilized hundreds of thousands of people who oppose what is seen as a regression in electoral transparency and independence. Brazil’s political transition could see ministerial appointments start. In Peru, tensions remain high as President Pedro Castillo awaits the arrival of a regional delegation to…

This week, Brazil’s transition takes some initial steps following Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s election victory and the dismantling of post-vote truckers’ protests. Colombia’s tax reform should be signed into law ready to take effect from January 2023. In Chile, the governing coalition faces a test of strength in Congress…

This week, trade-related uncertainty in Mexico will continue as President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) increasingly opts for loyalty over technical expertise. In Brazil, there was no clear winner in yesterday’s presidential debate less than a fortnight before the run-off vote. Chile marks three years since the mass protests and…

This week, Brazil’s presidential election campaign resets in the wake of a closer-than-anticipated first-round result yesterday, 2 October. In Cuba, the regime is in full crisis mode after days of protests over electricity outages caused by Hurricane Ian. The US will be getting down to details as Colombia’s President Gustavo…

This week, there is apprehension in Brazil about the politicization of tomorrow’s Bicentennial Independence Day military parades. Chile’s constitutional reform process is not over despite the overwhelming rejection of the new constitutional draft by voters last weekend. In Argentina, the attempted assassination of Vice-President Cristina Fernandez (CFK) will keep political…

This week, Colombia will finally see the shape of the tax reform that will form the bedrock of new President Gustavo Petro’s policy program. In Peru, there has been another chaotic, improvised cabinet reshuffle that exposes a president fast running out of ideas. In Argentina, new Economy Minister Sergio Massa…

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) seems intent on exploiting a trade dispute with the US and Canada to stir up nationalist sentiment. While there has been speculation locally that AMLO could even be considering withdrawing from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Mexico’s exit is unlikely. However, AMLO’s belligerence will…

This week, Gustavo Petro will be inaugurated as Colombia’s first left-wing president. One of Petro’s first measures will be to restore diplomatic relations with Venezuela. In Argentina, Sergio Massa takes the helm of economic policymaking. Meanwhile in Chile, a “plan B” in case the constitutional draft ends up being rejected…

Following a 12-month drafting process, the new constitution was officially delivered to President Gabriel Boric in a special ceremony yesterday, 4 July. The constituent assembly has now been formally dissolved. A public referendum to ratify or reject the new constitution will take place on 4 September. For the last few…

This week, Mexico’s Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) has moved one step closer to ensuring his National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party retains the presidency in 2024. In Colombia, with under a fortnight to go before the run-off presidential vote, the populist candidate Rodolfo Hernandez appears to have shut the door…

This week, Colombia holds its first-round presidential vote, with two candidates vying for a second place that would put them into a run-off against the leftist Gustavo Petro. A flurry of US diplomacy involving Mexico, Brazil, and other countries in the region reflects challenges…

This week, in Argentina, inflation remains at the top of the agenda in what will be a difficult few days for an embattled government. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has revived his attacks on the voting system. Meanwhile, problematic security conditions in Colombia could influence…

Despite the rejection of President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s electricity market reform, legal and political uncertainty will continue to impair the power sector. The fast-track approval of a lithium nationalization initiative is primarily a political damage limitation exercise, though it will harm the development of a fledging industry for…

This week, Mexico holds a presidential recall referendum that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) hopes will recharge his authority; separately, Mexico’s Supreme Court could make an important ruling on the constitutionality of electricity reforms. In Brazil, an expansion of an important cash transfer program is…

A signature collection drive is currently underway to enable a presidential recall referendum to take place in April 2022; at least 2.75mn signatures must be collected by 25 December. The referendum is designed to reinforce President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO)’s power and ensure he controls the succession process; his…

Last week’s developments relating to the Central Bank (Banxico) raise questions about its institutional autonomy just as inflation has risen to its highest rate in 20 years. A parallel initiative elevating large infrastructure projects to “national security” status is discretionary and opaque, while it unduly empowers President Andres Manuel Lopez…

The belated addition of the former World Bank economist Pedro Francke to President Pedro Castillo’s cabinet late on 30 July represents a positive development following a tumultuous couple of days. Francke had initially balked at serving under Castillo’s pick for prime minister (PCM), Guido Bellido. However, Castillo seems to have…

The opposition to the regime could be on the brink of a cyclical rebound to electoral participation and engagement. Gubernatorial, mayoral, and municipal elections scheduled for November will be the focus of political competition for the rest of 2021. The criminal nature of the regime represents a fundamental incompatibility with…

The tax reform that President Ivan Duque withdrew on 3 May has succeeded in reigniting the 2019 protest movement. The difference now is that economic conditions have deteriorated drastically, while wide-ranging public grievances run even deeper than before. This explains why protests are continuing even after…

Guillermo Lasso’s 11 April election victory in Ecuador could be seen as a win for pro-market parties across the region. Against significant odds, Lasso defeated a well-organized left-wing rival, seemingly bucking an incipient Latin American leftist revival (Mexico in 2018; Argentina in 2019; and Bolivia in 2020), which is widely…

In the wake of recent power outages, it is increasingly clear that President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) intends to double down on his pursuit of energy nationalism. In the immediate term, events of last week are being added to the official justification for controversial electricity sector reforms that would…

Health authorities and various political figures have been making calls for people to stay at home where possible, while avoiding Christmas parties and family gatherings. The appeal comes amid a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a sustained increase in hospital occupancy rates, especially in Mexico City, where some facilities are…

Carsten Nickel, Managing Director at Teneo, Jon Alterman, Teneo Senior Advisor, Anne Frühauf, Managing Director at Teneo, Nicholas Watson, Managing Director at Teneo, and Gabriel Wildau, Senior Vice President at Teneo, join Kevin Kajiwara to discuss what business leaders should look out for in 2021.  …

The government has suffered a heavy defeat by failing to block an opposition-led initiative that would allow people to dip into their retirement savings. While immediate-term governability can be restored by a likely cabinet reshuffle, President Sebastian Pinera is left permanently weakened, while the governing coalition is increasingly divided. The…

The United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA, or T-MEC as it is known in Mexico) came into effect on 1 July. Although President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) sees the USMCA as a catalyst for a post-pandemic economic recovery, the agreement is unlikely to involve a dramatic upshift in investment into…

On 8 June, President Alberto Fernandez announced the state takeover of the leading agro-export company Vicentin, the country’s sixth largest agricultural exporter. The takeover will last 60 days. However, an expropriation bill will be sent to Congress shortly with the aim of bringing Vicentin, which filed for bankruptcy in late-2019…

A surge in new Covid-19 cases centered on the Metropolitan Region (RM) of Santiago has forced the government to reverse its limited lockdown easing measures. As previously discussed, the U-turn demonstrates what can happen when Covid-19 hits higher-density populations, as well as the need for clear communication from a…

Many countries in Latin America opted for stringent lockdowns at a far earlier stage in the spread of Covid-19 than elsewhere in the world. This reflected the much greater risk of medical system overload in the region, as well as the fact that Covid-19 spread to Latin America comparatively late,…

The fall of Bolivia’s Evo Morales has strongly homegrown causes but shares common threads with recent upheaval in the region. Overlapping issues behind protests include inequality, lack of political renewal, and unmet expectations. The role of the military fits traditional patterns but it is too early to say what its…

The first-round of the presidential elections takes place on 27 October. In parallel, elections are being held for half the lower house and one third of the Senate, alongside gubernatorial elections in three provinces, including the mega-district of Buenos Aires, and mayoral elections in the capital. In the presidential vote,…

The opposition-dominated National Assembly (AN) on 5 January elected Juan Guaido as legislative president for the next 12 months. Guaido is from the Popular Will (VP) party, which has traditionally taken a more hardline stance towards the regime led by President Nicolas Maduro. The new AN president immediately branded Maduro,…

The scope for Latin American countries to emulate Brazil by electing far-right leaders is currently limited despite the continued potency of anti-establishment sentiment. Regional political fault-lines could well shift and polarize due to the strengthening of the Right in Brazil. Bolsonaro’s success or failure will be watched closely across the…

President Enrique Pena Nieto and president-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), flanked by several existing cabinet members and their successors, staged an unusual joint press conference yesterday, 20 August, to mark the formal start of the transition to the new AMLO administration on 1 December. The tone of the event…

The corruption scandal that broke on 1 August and which involves former president Cristina Fernandez (2007-2015) will have major political implications and is likely to alter the electoral outlook as it appeared just a few days ago. The scandal centers on a series of handwritten notebooks…

As forecast, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won the 1 July presidential election by a landslide and the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party is on course to secure a legislative majority. The five-month long transition should provide further clues as to AMLO’s policy priorities, many of which…

The 20 May election was a pyrrhic victory for President Nicolas Maduro because it exposed his lack of popular support. The economic crisis is so severe – and worsening – that Maduro’s position will remain highly precarious. However, there are several factors at play that could help Maduro stay in power,…

Martin Vizcarra has had a reasonably successful first few days in the presidency since he replaced Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on 23 March. Yesterday, 2 April, Vizcarra unveiled his new cabinet, which will be headed by Cesar Villanueva of the opposition Alliance for Progress (APP) party, who previously occupied the cabinet…

The opposition Fuerza Popular (FP) party led by Keiko Fujimori in the early hours of 8 March confirmed its unanimous support for President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s impeachment. Four FP legislators added their support to an impeachment motion activated by smaller opposition parties. The motion now has more than the 26…